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$1.27 B Surplus in February Masks Rising Import Pressure in Indonesia

Ria Fortuna Wijaya
April 1, 2026 | 1:49 pm
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Containers are loaded and unloaded at Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) in Tanjung Priok, Jakarta, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026. (Antara Photo/Muhammad Adimaja/bar)
Containers are loaded and unloaded at Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) in Tanjung Priok, Jakarta, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026. (Antara Photo/Muhammad Adimaja/bar)

Jakarta. Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a $1.27 billion surplus in February 2026, marking 70 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020, even as import growth continued to outpace exports.

Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) showed exports reached $22.17 billion in February, while imports stood at $20.89 billion.

“In February 2026, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a surplus of $1.27 billion,” said BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono during a press briefing.

He noted that the surplus was largely driven by non-oil and gas (non-migas) trade, which posted a $2.19 billion surplus, supported by commodities such as vegetable and animal fats, mineral fuels, and iron and steel.

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“The February surplus was primarily supported by the non-oil and gas trade balance,” Ateng said.

Meanwhile, the oil and gas (migas) balance remained in deficit at $0.92 billion, reflecting continued reliance on imports of crude oil, refined fuel, and gas.

Cumulatively, Indonesia posted a $2.23 billion trade surplus in the January–February 2026 period, with a $5.42 billion non-migas surplus offsetting a $3.19 billion deficit in the migas sector.

Exports Grow Modestly, Led by Manufacturing

Exports in January–February reached $44.32 billion, up 2.19% year-on-year (yoy). Non-migas exports rose 2.82% to $42.35 billion, while migas exports fell 9.75% to $1.97 billion.

Ateng highlighted that manufacturing remained the backbone of export growth. “The manufacturing sector was the main driver of the increase in non-oil and gas exports,” he said.

Key export drivers included crude palm oil (CPO), nickel, motor vehicles, semiconductors, and organic chemicals.

On a monthly basis, February exports rose 1.01% yoy, with non-migas exports increasing 1.30% to $21.09 billion, while migas exports declined 4.25% to $1.08 billion.

Some commodities posted strong gains, including vegetable and animal fats (up 16.19%), nickel and its derivatives (up 74.84%), and electrical machinery (up 28.43%).

China remained Indonesia’s top export destination, with non-migas exports totaling $10.46 billion in the first two months of the year.

“Non-oil and gas exports to China reached $10.46 billion,” Ateng said, adding that exports to the United States, India, and the European Union also increased, while shipments to ASEAN declined.

Imports Jump on Raw Materials and Capital Goods
Imports climbed faster, reaching $42.09 billion in January–February, up 14.44% yoy. Non-migas imports surged 17.49% to $36.93 billion, while migas imports fell 3.50% to $5.16 billion.

The increase was largely driven by raw materials and intermediate goods, which totaled $29.40 billion. “Import growth occurred across all categories of use,” Ateng said. He added that imports of capital goods surged sharply, rising 33.68% yoy in February, signaling ongoing industrial expansion.

China remained the largest source of imports at $15.68 billion, followed by Australia and Singapore. Together, the three accounted for 53.47% of Indonesia’s non-migas imports.

Surplus with US, Deficit Deepens with China
Indonesia recorded its largest trade surpluses with the United States ($3.11 billion), India ($2.29 billion), and the Philippines ($1.54 billion).

In contrast, the deepest deficits were recorded with China ($4.99 billion), Australia ($1.69 billion), and Singapore ($1.48 billion).

“The deepest non-oil and gas trade deficit was with China at $5.23 billion, followed by Australia at $1.58 billion and Singapore at $800 million,” Ateng said.

BPS noted that global commodity prices showed mixed movements in February. Prices for precious metals and minerals increased, driven by rising gold prices, while energy commodities such as crude oil and natural gas declined. Coal prices, however, rose 10.70% yoy.

At the same time, manufacturing activity in key trading partners remained solid. “The manufacturing PMI of Indonesia’s main trading partners remained in expansion territory,” Ateng said, referring to India, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which posted readings above 50.

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