Jakarta. Indonesia’s solid economic performance in 2025 is poised to gain early-year support in 2026 as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, and the post-holiday period fall entirely in the first quarter, a timing that could strengthen consumption momentum, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said.

BPS recorded Indonesia’s economic growth at 5.11% in 2025, a figure that, while slightly below the government’s projection, remains relatively strong compared with regional peers such as Malaysia and Thailand amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

Growth accelerated toward the end of the year, reaching 5.39% in the fourth quarter, supported by high public mobility, investment growth above 6%, and household consumption that expanded 5.11%, indicating improving consumer confidence.

However, BPS head Amalia Adininggar noted that Indonesia is experiencing a structural shift in spending behavior, with more transactions moving online and consumption patterns increasingly shaped by Gen Z and millennial consumers.

“Public confidence to consume has improved, but the way people shop is changing. Not all spending is done offline anymore, and the types of goods purchased are also shifting,” she said on Friday at the B-Universe office in Tangerang.

Amalia emphasized that 5.11% growth still reflects a resilient economy, especially given external pressures.  

In 2025, the Eid al-Fitr holiday period was concentrated in the second quarter, while in 2026 the entire Ramadan-to-post-Eid stretch will occur in the first quarter, potentially front-loading consumption and economic activity at the start of the year.

The shift creates what BPS describes as a momentum opportunity for domestic demand to strengthen earlier in the year, offering a supportive base for Indonesia’s 2026 growth trajectory despite lingering global risks.

Previously, BPS reported that Indonesia’s economy grew 5.11% cumulatively in 2025, improving from 5.03% growth in 2024, supported by steady household spending, government outlays, and investment.

The agency also recorded GDP per capita rising to Rp 83.7 million, or about $5,083.4, from Rp 78.6 million a year earlier, indicating continued income gains in Southeast Asia’s largest economy despite mounting external headwinds.

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