Jakarta. Global demand for coal is expected to continue rising through late 2025 and 2026, supported by seasonal winter energy needs in subtropical countries and recovering industrial power consumption. Historically, the second half of the year has been associated with a strengthening coal market due to growing import demand, particularly from East and South Asia.

Indonesia Remains Core to Global Coal Supply
As one of the world’s largest holders of coal reserves, Indonesia is projected to remain a key contributor to the global supply chain as demand intensifies in the fourth quarter of 2025. South Sumatra -- home to the country’s second-largest coal reserves -- is set to play an increasingly strategic role in stabilizing global supply.

To reinforce South Sumatra’s position as the center of domestic coal production, the government and state-owned energy companies are accelerating major infrastructure expansion. State miner Bukit Asam (PTBA) has set a target of producing 100 million tons by 2030, a 138 percent increase from 42 million tons in 2024.

Rail operator Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) is also preparing large-scale upgrades to support rising national coal logistics needs. This includes plans for an additional freight capacity of 28 million tons per year starting in early 2026, alongside the development of a triple-track network to raise capacity to 165 million tons per year by 2029. Rail transport will become increasingly vital as the South Sumatra regional government has prohibited the use of public roads for coal hauling.

Rising Logistical Demand Creates Opportunity for Integrated Providers
The projected growth of coal output in South Sumatra has intensified demand for well-integrated logistics infrastructure. This provides a significant runway for companies with end-to-end coal transport ecosystems, such as RMK Energy (RMKE), which already operates hauling roads, rail loading stations, rail unloading stations, and port access in the province.

RMKE has completed a 38-kilometer dedicated coal hauling road now connected to two new mines -- Wiraduta Sejahtera Langgeng (WSL) and Duta Bara Utama (DBU) -- and is expected to link with additional mines, including Bukit Asam.

Research from NH Korindo highlights that although RMKE experienced pressure during the first nine months of 2025 -- with revenue declining 36.1percent year-on-year and net profit down 22 percent -- its coal services segment strengthened substantially. Gross profit from coal services rose 15.3 percent year-on-year, increasing its revenue contribution from 30.5 percent to 46.5 percent.

With the new hauling road in operation, expanded rail capacity from KAI, higher output from PTBA, and a projected rebound in global demand in the second half of the year, NH Korindo expects RMKE to enter a significantly stronger financial growth phase starting in 2026.

Strong Upside Call for RMK Energy
NH Korindo has issued a “buy” recommendation for RMK Energy with a target price of Rp 7,000 per share, representing a +112.8 percent upside from the current level of Rp 3,290 as of November 24, 2025. The valuation is based on a five-year DCF method with an implied company valuation of Rp 30.8 trillion.

Key projections include:

• Forward PE: 8.38x
• PBV: 2.67x
• EV/EBITDA: 6.15x
• Revenue forecast: Rp 4.1 trillion → Rp 15.5 trillion (2026–2028)
• Net profit forecast: +236 percent year-on-year in 2026

“With rising global demand, KAI and PTBA capacity expansion, and RMKE’s newly strengthened logistics infrastructure, we set a target price of Rp 7,000 and recommend a buy with +112.8 percent potential upside. Growth momentum is solid from the second half of this year through 2026, in line with the government’s focus on energy resilience and self-sufficiency,” said NH Korindo analyst Axell Ebhenhaezer.

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