World leaders will meet in Antalya, Türkiye, from Nov. 9 to 20 for COP31, the annual United Nations climate summit. Indonesia's Environment Ministry has said it wants the summit to focus on delivering on existing promises rather than making new ones. That also means Indonesia will be judged by what is happening at home, in its forests, plantations, and villages.

Indonesia wants to grow its economy rapidly. President Prabowo Subianto has set a target of 8% annual growth, and the forestry minister has described the green economy, including the sale of forest carbon credits, as a new engine of growth. A carbon credit is a certificate that a company buys to compensate for emissions by paying for pollution reductions elsewhere. Buyers will pay a premium only if they trust that the forests behind those credits are protected. That trust depends on Indonesia's forest, land, and energy policies working together. Right now, they are pulling in different directions.

Start with fuel. Since July, diesel sold in Indonesia has been required to contain 50% biodiesel made from palm oil under a program known as B50. The program helps Indonesia reduce diesel imports, a clear benefit. But palm oil requires land. A University of Maryland study estimates that B50 could require between 4.85 million and 8.55 million hectares of additional plantations. The government also plans to open 600,000 hectares of new land for palm oil cultivation this year. If that land comes from forests or peatlands, a fuel policy intended to cut pollution could end up creating more of it. Peat is a layer of waterlogged soil that can burn for weeks once drained.

Then consider the smoke. On Oct. 3, government satellites recorded more than 20,000 hotspots in a single day. A hotspot is an area with an unusually high temperature compared with its surroundings and can indicate a fire. The haze crossed national borders, prompting Malaysia to close schools in Johor for two days. Many fires start when land is cleared or peatlands are drained for plantations. Fire, therefore, is a land-use and energy problem, not just a disaster-management issue.

This is why communities matter. People with secure rights to their land have a strong incentive to protect it because it is both their home and their source of income. The forestry minister said last year that recognizing customary land rights could reduce deforestation by 30% to 50%. Customary forests are areas that Indigenous communities have managed according to their traditions for generations. So far, the government has recognized about 369,000 hectares of customary forests belonging to 174 communities, with a target of 1.4 million hectares by 2029. But that target is modest compared with the amount of land that biodiesel production may require, and legal recognition alone does not put money into village economies.

Money is the missing piece. Wealthy countries have pledged climate finance — funding to help developing countries cut emissions and adapt to a hotter world. Yet very little reaches communities on the ground. The International Institute for Environment and Development found that less than 10% of funding from international climate funds was directed toward local initiatives. New mechanisms are seeking to change that. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, launched at last year's summit in Brazil, pays countries to keep forests standing and requires them to direct at least 20% of payments to Indigenous and local communities.

So what should Indonesia bring to Antalya? A just forest agenda built on three steps.

First, it should establish a firm rule that no palm oil used for biodiesel can come from forests, peatlands, or land claimed by communities. Every tonne should be traceable to the plantation where it was produced.

Second, it should make direct payments to villages that prevent fires. A village that remains free of fires throughout the dry season should receive an annual payment into its own bank account, with its performance verified by satellite monitoring.

Third, it should guarantee that when a community secures rights to its forest, it also receives a fair share of any revenue generated from carbon credits or other forest-related payments. The 20% community share should be a minimum standard for all forest and carbon finance in Indonesia.

With these measures in place at home, Indonesia would be in a stronger position to demand more from the international community. It could push wealthy countries to channel forest funding directly into community funds rather than through long chains of agencies and consultants.

These elements are interconnected. Energy policy determines how much land the country needs. Land policy determines who controls it. Fires reveal whether the system is working. Finance determines whether people on the ground have an incentive to protect it.

In Antalya, carbon buyers and forest donors will look beyond speeches to the smoke, the plantations, and the bank accounts of local communities. If all three tell the same story, the world will have reason to believe in Indonesia's green economy. If they do not, no promise will be enough.

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The opinion article is authored by Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Executive Director of CELIOS, and Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of China-Indonesia Desk, CELIOS.

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.

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