For decades, the global trading system appeared anchored in rules — predictable, multilateral, and institution-driven. Today, that assumption is under strain. A new wave of US trade actions — from punitive tariffs to revived Section 301 investigations — has reignited a fundamental question: are we witnessing a temporary disruption, or a deeper structural shift?

For ASEAN and the broader Global South, the answer is not academic. It will shape how economies position themselves in a world where rules and power increasingly coexist.

Trade’s New Geopolitical Edge
Washington’s expanding use of tariffs, national security justifications, and unilateral trade instruments is often framed as a break from the past. These measures are less a rupture than an acceleration of trends already underway. Global trade has been moving away from a purely rules-based system. Governments are prioritizing industrial policy, supply chain resilience, and technological competition. Economic policy is no longer just about efficiency — it is increasingly about security and strategy.

What we are seeing is not the collapse of the multilateral system, but its transformation. The World Trade Organization still matters, but it now operates alongside intensifying geoeconomic competition. Trade flows remain open where interdependence is beneficial, yet strategic sectors—from semiconductors to critical minerals—are becoming arenas of rivalry.

In this sense, Trump-era policies do not mark the beginning of a new order. They are accelerating the emergence of what can best be described as a hybrid geoeconomic order — where rules still govern, but power increasingly decides. This shift is not theoretical — it is already visible in the data. 

Often overlooked is a deeper shift already underway: the center of gravity in global trade has been moving for years. Trade among developing economies — once peripheral — has more than doubled from around 10% of global trade in 2000 to over a quarter today, reaching roughly $6 trillion in value. Within this broader trend, ASEAN has quietly deepened its internal integration, with intra-ASEAN trade consistently accounting for about 22–25% of its total trade over the past decade, providing a stable regional anchor amid global uncertainty. 

At a wider scale, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — covering around 30% of global GDP and trade — has emerged as a platform for open regionalism, reinforcing production networks across East Asia and beyond. Taken together, these trends suggest that the Global South is no longer a passive participant but an increasingly central pillar of the global trading system—reshaping the system from within, even as major powers attempt to reshape it from above.

Uncertainty for ASEAN and the Global South
This hybrid reality disrupts long-standing assumptions about globalization, market access, value chains, and policy predictability. Strategic ambiguity is now the norm: cooperation persists, but competition is sharpening. For ASEAN and other emerging economies, the response should not be reactive, but strategic. Rather than over-adjusting to every major power move, the priority is to assess long-term implications for development, regional integration, and global value chain positioning.

In this environment, regional frameworks gain renewed importance. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), as the world’s largest trade agreement, reflects an open and pragmatic approach—deepening intra-regional ties while maintaining outward-looking engagement. Its growing appeal to economies beyond Southeast Asia underscores its role as a stabilizing anchor. 

Resilience, meanwhile, requires diversification. Expanding trade partnerships, strengthening regional networks, and sustaining engagement with multilateral institutions are no longer optional—they are essential strategies in navigating systemic uncertainty.

Looking Ahead
Recent US trade actions have reignited concerns about unilateralism, but they are not creating a new reality from scratch. They are amplifying shifts that have been building for years. A return to a purely rules-based order is unlikely. Equally, a system dominated entirely by raw power is neither sustainable nor efficient. The future lies not in choosing between rules and power, but in managing both.

The emerging global trading system is hybrid — simultaneously multilateral, regional, and competitive. For ASEAN and the Global South, success will depend not on predicting the system’s direction, but on developing the flexibility to navigate it.

Editor's note: The article has been adapted from a longer commentary published by CSIS (available at https://share.google/leyIYvUqrU094P5Q).

---
Iman Pambagyo is the Trade Ministry’s Director General of International Trade Negotiations (2012-2014, 2016-2020) and Indonesia’s Ambassador to the WTO (2014-2015).

The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

Add as a preferred source on Google +