New York. Back-to-school shopping could get pricier for American families this fall, as sweeping new tariffs on clothing and footwear imports threaten to raise prices on sneakers, jeans, and T-shirts, according to major US trade groups.

Roughly 97 percent of clothing and footwear sold in the US is imported, primarily from Asian nations, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association. That includes major brands such as Walmart, Gap Inc., Lululemon, and Nike, which rely heavily on Asian manufacturing.

But under a new tariff plan from President Donald Trump, those same countries now face steep import duties: 54 percent on Chinese goods, 46 percent on Vietnamese, 49 percent on Cambodian, and 32 percent on Indonesian products. Even other regional producers like India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have been hit with high tariffs, leaving retailers with limited sourcing alternatives.

“If these tariffs are allowed to persist, ultimately it’s going to hit consumers,” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.

The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) projected sharp price hikes. For example, Chinese-made work boots currently retailing at $77 could jump to $115. Running shoes from Vietnam priced at $155 might cost $220. A pair of $26 kids’ shoes from China could increase to $41.

FDRA President Matt Priest warned that lower-income families and discount retailers will feel the brunt of the increases.

Tariffs Hit Sourcing Shifts and Supply Chains

Trump’s new tariff strategy caught much of the fashion industry off guard. Many companies had already begun diversifying away from China during his first term due to earlier tariffs, as well as growing concern over labor and environmental issues. Lululemon, for example, said 40 percent of its apparel was produced in Vietnam last year, with significant shares also from Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

Steve Madden announced in November it would cut imports from China by 45 percent due to Trump’s campaign pledge to impose a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese products. The footwear brand has expanded its supplier network to Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico, and Brazil.

Rebuilding a domestic US garment industry is unlikely in the short term. Apparel manufacturing jobs in the US have dropped from 139,000 in 2015 to just 85,000 in January 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sri Lanka, with a population one-seventh the size of the US, employs four times as many garment workers.

Additionally, the US lacks domestic sources for many of the 70-plus materials used in making a typical shoe. These include cotton laces, textile uppers, and eyelets, most of which have never been produced in the US, the FDRA noted in written comments to the administration.

Sticker Shock for Consumers

Clothing prices in the US have remained remarkably stable for decades. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, apparel cost roughly the same in 2024 as it did in 1994, thanks to free trade, low-cost labor abroad, and aggressive price competition among brands like H&M, Zara, and Forever 21.

But after years of inflation in food and housing, consumers may be especially sensitive to price hikes in apparel. Priest said many families have already started cutting back on shoe purchases since Trump’s return to office.

“They’re nervous,” he said. “They’ve been managing inflation fatigue for years, and they just don’t have the endurance to absorb more price shocks—especially when those shocks are imposed by their own government.”

Winners and Losers in a Trade War

A recent Barclays report suggested that companies with strong supplier relationships, powerful brand names, and minimal sourcing in Asia may fare better. Retailers like Burlington, Ross Stores, and TJX (which owns T.J. Maxx and Marshalls), along with brands like Ralph Lauren and Dick’s Sporting Goods, are seen as relatively resilient.

On the other hand, brands with high exposure to Asian production and limited pricing power—such as Gap Inc., American Eagle, and Urban Outfitters—are expected to struggle.

The resale platform ThredUp praised a separate move by the Trump administration to eliminate a widely used tax exemption that allowed millions of cheap goods—primarily from China—to enter the US duty-free.

“This policy change will increase the cost of disposable clothing imported from China, directly impacting a business model that fuels overproduction and environmental degradation,” ThredUp said.

Still, economists warn that tariffs function like a sales tax on consumers, and may widen the wealth gap by disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income households.

“So where will the US be buying its apparel now that tariff rates on China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are astronomical?” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Will the new ‘Golden Age’ involve knitting our own knickers?”