Jakarta. Indonesia has spent more than a year navigating the uncertainties of President Donald Trump's trade policies, but officials remain confident that whatever tariff measures ultimately emerge will not derail the country's exports to the United States.

The latest twist came after the US Supreme Court invalidated Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced in 2025. Under that regime, Indonesian goods initially faced a 32% tariff before a bilateral agreement reduced the rate to 19%.

For now, Indonesian exports are subject to a temporary 10% tariff, although that stopgap measure is set to expire on July 24.

The uncertainty stems from the Trump administration's decision to pursue alternative trade actions under Section 301 of US trade law, allowing Washington to impose tariffs following investigations into specific trade practices.

One investigation focuses on Indonesia's handling of imports allegedly produced through forced labor. According to Indonesian officials, Washington has imposed a lower 10% tariff on Indonesia, compared with 12.5% on some other trading partners, because Jakarta maintains restrictions on such imports and has cooperated with US concerns.

A separate investigation is examining whether Indonesia's manufacturing sector is producing goods beyond market demand, a finding that could trigger additional trade measures. The government estimates the combined impact of the two Section 301 investigations could eventually raise the tariff rate on Indonesian exports to around 18%.

Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, who recently met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, said Washington had indicated that several Indonesian products would be exempt from any additional Section 301 tariffs, including coffee, crude palm oil, natural rubber, and automotive spare parts.

Both governments have also discussed tariff reductions for Indonesian textile exports under certain volume arrangements.

“Indonesia is one of the few countries that they believe has complied with efforts to address forced-labor imports. That is why they are giving us a lower rate of 10% for labor-intensive industries. Many more products are also receiving exemptions,” Airlangga said.

His aide, Susiwijono Moegiarso, said the tariff process remains subject to further legal and administrative review in the US and that Indonesia still has opportunities to present additional arguments before any final decision is made.

“The final rate depends on the legal and administrative process in the US. They are still accepting comments before the tariffs take effect,” Susiwijono told the Jakarta Globe.

Despite the uncertainty, Indonesian officials say exports to the US continue to perform strongly.

Trade Minister Budi Santoso noted that exports to the US increased from $26.5 billion in 2024, before the tariff dispute intensified, to $30.6 billion in 2025. Indonesia's trade surplus with the US reached $18.1 billion last year.

According to Budi, the tariff agreement signed earlier this year has provided exporters with greater certainty even as Washington continues to adjust its trade policies.

“The trading partner that generates our largest trade surplus is the US. Most of our exports to the US also come from labor-intensive industries,” Budi said.

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