Jakarta. From extradition agreements and airspace control to transboundary haze and natural gas supplies, relations between Indonesia and Singapore have long been complicated. Fresh tensions are now testing the relationship as the two neighbors approach 60 years of diplomatic ties in 2027.

The friction contrasts sharply with the optimism surrounding Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's visit to Indonesia shortly after President Prabowo Subianto took office in 2024. Wong was the first foreign leader to make an official visit under Prabowo, who had pledged a good-neighbor policy.

Over the past two weeks, however, Indonesia has reduced natural gas exports to Singapore, cast uncertainty over planned electricity exports and even urged Umrah pilgrims to avoid transiting through Changi Airport.

Former Indonesian Ambassador to Singapore Suryopratomo, who served from 2020 to 2025, said the two countries have enjoyed close, mutually beneficial relations for 59 years, but political grandstanding frequently creates unnecessary diplomatic friction.

"In recent days, both sides have resorted to megaphone diplomacy, speaking publicly without communicating beforehand. I believe this is what caused the misunderstandings," he told BTV.

He recalled that Prabowo and Wong had agreed on 26 cooperation initiatives during their leaders' retreat in Jakarta just three months earlier, covering investment, defense, energy, cross-border electricity trading and digital cooperation.

"Whether we like it or not, we are destined to remain neighbors," he said.

Prabowo himself has raised allegations involving Singapore, including claims that Indonesian commodity exports were undervalued through Singapore before being resold to third countries at higher prices. He has also accused companies backed by investors from neighboring countries of involvement in forest and land fires.

Anti-Singapore sentiment intensified after former Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi accused Singapore of orchestrating MSCI's warning that Indonesia's stock market could be downgraded to standalone status to enable investors to acquire Indonesian assets cheaply.

Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia also rebuked Singapore indirectly for lecturing Indonesia about honoring contracts following the gas supply reduction.

Damage Control
Brawijaya University international relations lecturer Aswin Ariyanto Azis warned that inflammatory rhetoric could undermine trust and investor confidence, although he acknowledged legitimate Indonesian grievances.

"Singapore has long benefited from being a low-tax financial hub that attracts Indonesian firms," Aswin said, citing aggressive tax planning, profit shifting and transfer pricing that could erode Indonesia's tax base.

He viewed the gas export reduction primarily as an effort to prioritize domestic supply rather than retaliation, although its timing conveyed a political message.

"Legitimate criticism must not devolve into anti-Singaporean rhetoric," he said.

"Singapore shouldn't take the benefits derived from its closeness with Indonesia for granted. Indonesia should not use Singapore as a scapegoat for its own mess."

Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan visited Jakarta earlier this week in an apparent effort to contain the tensions, meeting both Indonesian Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir and Prabowo.

"It's important for cool heads to prevail, for direct, honest, candid, constructive conversations to be had, and for us to look for a collective approach," Balakrishnan said.

An Isolated Episode?
Despite the increasingly heated rhetoric, observers believe the latest tensions could prove temporary.

"We've been through this cycle before. Every few years we realize how much of our money, fuel supply, and trade still runs through Singapore. We get angry about it, and then nothing changes," said Virdika Rizky Utama, a PhD scholar in Public Policy and Global Affairs at Nanyang Technological University.

He pointed to Indonesia's continued dependence on Singapore for refined petroleum products, despite repeated promises to expand domestic refining capacity.

Singapore has no crude oil reserves but has become a regional refining and trading hub, he noted. When the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupted supplies, Indonesia turned to Singapore and Malaysia.

"Strong words don't count for much when the refineries we keep promising still haven't been built," Virdika said.

He also dismissed allegations that Singapore's Temasek influenced MSCI's assessment of Indonesia's stock market, warning that such accusations could reinforce investor concerns about Jakarta's unwillingness to address structural weaknesses.

On forest fires, he argued that even if Singapore-linked companies were involved, responsibility for enforcement ultimately rested with Indonesian authorities because the concessions and operating permits were issued domestically.

"The government can name the companies, take them to court and revoke their licences. If it doesn't, pointing at Singapore starts to look like an excuse for not policing our own forests," he said.

"Blaming Singapore is much easier. It gets the public behind you and changes the subject, and officials get to look tough without answering for their own record. But this kind of nationalism doesn't fix anything."

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