Jakarta. The National Development Planning Agency, or Bappenas, on Tuesday predicted that Indonesia’s population could reach 324 million people in 2045. Bappenas said it had made three scenarios for the projections of Indonesia’s population growth. 

The first is a business-as-usual scenario that sees Indonesia having its total fertility rate (TFR) dropping to 1.9 in 2045, coupled with a 7.85 infant mortality rate (IMR).

The moderate scenario assumes a 2.0 TFR and a 5.8 IMR. Last but not least is an optimistic scenario in which Indonesia aims to improve life expectancy to 80 years to be on par with other developed economies. Indonesia may record a 2.0 TFR and a 4.2 IMR in this optimistic scenario.

“According to the business-as-usual scenario, Indonesia is forecast to be home to 324 million people in 2045. This marks an increase of 54.42 million people from 2020 figures,” Bappenas head Suharso Monoarfa said in Jakarta on Tuesday.

“In 2020-2050, our population will witness an annual growth rate of 0.67 percent, and it will gradually slow down each year,” Suharso said.

According to Bappenas, 19.61 percent of the Indonesian population in 2045 is of 0-14 years old, down from 24.56 percent in 2020. Those aged 15-64 years old would account for 65.79 percent of the Indonesian population in 2045.

People aged 65 years old and above would jump from 6.16 percent in 2020 to 14.61 percent in 2045, Bappenas reported.

“In 2023, India became the world’s most populated country, beating China which has been experiencing a negative population growth since 2021. Indonesia is the fourth most-populous nation, but will drop to sixth place in 2045,” Suharso said.

Statistics shown at the Bappenas forum revealed that India’s population could hit 1.6 billion people in 2045. Followed by China (1.3 billion), the US (371.7 million), Nigeria (349.6 million), and Pakistan (345.8 million).

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