Jakarta. Indonesia is bracing for a prolonged and uneven dry season this year as the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) warns that a so-called “Godzilla El Niño” could intensify drought risks across much of the archipelago from April to October 2026.

BRIN said the extreme warming of Pacific sea surface temperatures, dubbed “Godzilla El Niño”, is expected to extend and dry out the country’s dry season for up to six months, with conditions further amplified by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

In a statement posted on its official X account (@brin_indonesia) BRIN explained that the combination of these two climate phenomena would significantly suppress rainfall in Indonesia.

The agency noted that “clouds and rainfall will concentrate more over the Pacific, leaving Indonesia with reduced precipitation. A positive IOD also cools sea surface temperatures around Sumatra and Java, further suppressing rainfall. Both phenomena are forecast to occur simultaneously during Indonesia’s dry season from April to October 2026.”

The impact, however, will not be evenly distributed. Southern regions, spanning Java to East Nusa Tenggara, are expected to face drier-than-usual conditions, while parts of eastern Indonesia such as Sulawesi, Halmahera, and Maluku may still experience high-intensity rainfall.

Erma Yulihastin, a senior researcher at BRIN’s Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research, urged the government to prepare targeted mitigation measures, citing varying regional risks.

She said “government mitigation should account for drought risks in southern Indonesia, potential flooding in northeastern regions, forest and land fires in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, and opportunities to optimize salt production.”

Earlier, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projected that most parts of Indonesia will enter the dry season earlier than usual in 2026, following the end of a weak La Niña phase in February and a transition toward neutral conditions, with a possible shift to El Niño by mid-year.

BMKG added that the seasonal transition is typically marked by a shift from the Asian monsoon (westerlies) to the Australian monsoon (easterlies), signaling the onset of the dry season across the country.

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