Jakarta. Indonesian businesses doubt that the US-Venezuela conflict will deal a fatal blow to Jakarta’s overall trade, citing its slight exposure to the South American market.

The world is keeping a close eye on Venezuela since US President Donald Trump seized its now-ousted leader Nicolas Maduro. Trump is eyeing Venezuelan oil reserves, while warning a second strike if the government led by Maduro's veep Delcy Rodriguez refuses to cooperate. Governments and companies across the globe are monitoring the economic aftermath of these political shifts. 

“We feel that the US-Venezuela geopolitical tension will only have a limited impact on Indonesia’s trade and investment inflows,” business lobby Apindo chairwoman Shinta Kamdani told the Jakarta Globe on Tuesday.

Venezuela accounted for only 0.02% of Indonesia’s total exports in 2024. The oil-rich country placed 108th out of 201 Indonesian export destinations that year. Venezuela made up about 1.6% of Indonesia’s exports to the Latin American and Caribbean region, Apindo revealed.

Shinta underlined that Indonesia-Venezuela trade has been on a 25.4% rise in 2020-2024. However, this growth can weaken if the crisis affects Caracas’ economic stability and purchasing power. There are also indirect risks that Indonesia has to watch out for. For instance, Indonesia’s logistic costs, which reached a staggering 14.29% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2022, remain susceptible to global uncertainties.

“Geopolitical escalations can exacerbate global uncertainties while sparking energy and commodity price volatility. They can affect logistics, financing, and international transaction costs,” Shinta told the Globe. 

“All in all, yes, the US-Venezuela tension warrants vigilance. But Indonesia’s direct exposure is still relatively limited. We can manage the risks through sound policy coordination and business preparedness,” the businesswoman said, while calling for trade diversification.

In the first 11 months of 2025, Indonesia-Venezuela trade totaled $89.2 million, according to the latest available data by the Trade Ministry. Indonesia enjoyed a $60.9 million surplus, almost triple the $23.5 million positive trade balance recorded in the same period of 2024. The government also listed soaps, automotives and parts, as well as man-made staple fibers, as some of Indonesia’s leading exports to Caracas.

Economic tsar Airlangga Hartarto has said that the oil prices remained “relatively low at $63 per barrel” since the US strike on Venezuela. The international arm of the state-run energy giant Pertamina operates an oil field in Venezuela via the Paris-based Maurel & Prom (M&P). Pertamina Internasional Eksplorasi dan Produksi (PIEP) announced that its oil assets were unaffected following the military assault.

Since Maduro’s capture, Indonesia has been pushing for all conflicting parties to engage in dialogue, although Jakarta shies away from directly condemning the Trump administration.