Jakarta. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela have resurfaced following a move by the Trump administration against President Nicolás Maduro’s government. While the development appears escalatory politically, global energy markets have responded in a counterintuitive way.

Instead of rising, oil prices have eased. Energy analyst Yudha Jayadikarta from the Indonesian Renewable Energy Society (METI) said crude prices slipped to the $56–60 per barrel range after the US announced plans to redirect 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to its domestic market. 

“The market sees this as additional supply rather than a disruption,” Yudha said, describing the move as an energy policy maneuver rather than a shock to global markets.

Economist Ruth Elisabeth of the University of Indonesia echoed the assessment, noting that Venezuela’s oil output has fallen to around 1 million barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global supply. Any easing of exports, she said, would mainly affect heavy crude segments and specific refinery margins, rather than global oil prices or growth. Supply shortfalls could still be offset by the US, OPEC, and other producers.

For Indonesia, the implications are largely indirect. As a net oil importer, the country is more exposed to volatility than to the conflict itself. Indonesia produces roughly 600,000 bpd, with imports surging to nearly 1 million bpd.

“With oil prices near $60, there is no immediate economic rationale for raising domestic fuel prices,” Yudha said.

Ruth added that fuel price risks are more likely to come through exchange-rate channels, as heightened global risk aversion tends to strengthen the US dollar and raise import costs even when oil prices are stable.

Indonesia is better prepared than in past episodes, supported by fuel pricing mechanisms and compensation schemes. However, structural vulnerabilities persist due to import dependence, limited stock levels, and heavy reliance on dollar-denominated energy transactions.

Attention has also turned to Pertamina’s upstream assets in Venezuela. Yudha said risks remain manageable and largely administrative, while Ruth noted potential upside if exports reopen under a more stable policy environment.

Both analysts agreed current conditions offer a policy window rather than a need for reactive measures. Stabilizing the rupiah, strengthening fuel stocks, diversifying supply sources, and managing currency risk were cited as priorities. As long as Indonesia remains a net fuel importer, they said, reducing sensitivity to external shocks, not eliminating risk, will remain the central challenge.