Jakarta. Indonesian investors are pulling back from stocks and turning to gold and real estate as global markets reel from fresh uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump's surprise tariff policy.

Trump’s recent announcement of tariffs and conflicting signals around trade restrictions shook global markets, with ripple effects reaching Southeast Asia. Elon Musk and Nvidia have criticized the move, with the chipmaker projecting a potential $5.5 billion loss.

While the timing coincided with the Eid holiday in Indonesia, temporarily insulating local markets, sentiment remains cautious. “It’s a risky climate, but there's still room for tactical moves,” said Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, speaking at the Beritasatu investor forum in Tangerang on Thursday.

Liza recommended a defensive strategy with no more than 30 percent of funds allocated to stocks. She pointed to blue-chip banking stocks like BRI, Mandiri, and BCA as potential rebound candidates after recent corrections. “There’s opportunity if investors are selective,” she said, adding that the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) could still reach 7,000–7,200 by year-end, depending on global trends and domestic policy support, including relaxed rules on share buybacks.

Gold and Property as Safe Havens

As financial markets wobble, Indonesian investors are flocking to traditional safe havens. Gold has seen a resurgence, supported by strong demand from global central banks and institutional investors.

Luqyan Tamanni, Head of the BSI Institute, said gold could climb to $4,000 per troy ounce by 2026. “We’re witnessing a post-Eid surge in gold buying,” he said. “It reflects strong trust in gold’s value, especially amid inflation and currency risks.”

Tamanni advised allocating at least 10 percent of one’s portfolio to gold, citing a shift in spending patterns, especially among younger investors. “We’re seeing people cut back on daily consumption while still buying jewelry. That’s telling.”

Meanwhile, real estate continues to attract buyers. Clement Francis, Chairman of the Real Estate Brokers Association (AREBI), said housing demand remains resilient, even amid economic headwinds. “One developer in South Tangerang booked Rp700 billion in sales in just three months,” he said.

Francis noted that in Indonesia, buying property is deeply tied to life milestones. “It’s a cultural reflex: finish school, get a job, buy a house.” He sees potential for new buyers as prices begin to soften, advising a focus on landed homes and land investments over apartments.

Warning Signs and Policy Tools

The trade tensions between the U.S. and China could cost Indonesia hundreds of millions in export losses, particularly in sectors like textiles and electronics, according to economist M. Edhie Purnawan of Gadjah Mada University.

With the JCI down 9.2 percent on April 8 and the rupiah hitting Rp16,400 per dollar, Bank Indonesia’s $157 billion in reserves offers some buffer. Still, Edhie warned of ongoing volatility and urged coordinated policy responses.

“We need strategic diplomacy, smart stimulus, and clear public messaging,” Edhie said. “If we act together, Indonesia can weather this storm.”

Edhie outlined five critical actions: currency intervention, fiscal stimulus, regional diplomacy, inter-agency coordination, and credible public communication. “The shocks we face are severe. But with strong institutional collaboration, we can remain defenders of the economy,” he concluded.