Jakarta. The government has collected Rp 1,517.5 trillion ($96 billion) in tax revenue as of Oct. 31, 2024, reflecting a 0.4 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023, when tax revenue totaled Rp 1,523.9 trillion.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati acknowledged the economic challenges during a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Commission XI on Wednesday.

 "This year has been difficult with negative tax growth due to falling palm oil and coal prices," she said.

In total, state revenue has reached Rp 2,247.5 trillion, showing a modest 0.3 percent growth from Rp 2,240.5 trillion at the end of October 2023. This includes Rp 1,517.5 trillion from tax revenue, Rp 231.7 trillion from customs and excise, and Rp 477.5 trillion from non-tax revenues.

“This means we have achieved 80 percent of our total target for this year, and we now have two months left to collect the remaining 20 percent to reach the target of Rp 2,802.3 trillion,” Minister Sri Mulyani added.

Deputy Finance Minister Anggito Abimanyu explained that the tax revenue of Rp 1,517.53 trillion is divided into four main categories. First, non-oil and gas income tax (PPh) reached Rp 810.76 trillion, 76.24 percent of the target, showing a slight contraction of 0.34 percent in gross growth.

“Non-oil and gas income tax has increased in various sectors, especially in the extractive sector,” Anggito said.

The second category is value-added tax (PPN) and luxury goods tax (PPnBM), which totaled Rp 620.42 trillion, or 76.47 percent of the target, with a gross growth of 7.87 percent.

“Domestic consumption of goods has continued to increase compared to last year, reflecting a steady trend, and the overall economic conditions are improving,” he added.

The third category is property taxes (PBB) and other taxes, which reached Rp 32.65 trillion, or 86.52 percent of the target. This represents a 12.81 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The fourth category is oil and gas income tax (PPh Migas), which totaled Rp 53.7 trillion, or 70.31 percent of the target, showing an 8.97 percent contraction compared to 2023.

Potential for Shortfall

Meanwhile, tax consultant Raden Agus Suparman from Botax Consulting Indonesia raised concerns about the possibility of a shortfall in reaching the tax revenue target for 2024. With limited time remaining, he believes it will be challenging to meet the target.

Assuming that November 2024's revenue is consistent with the previous months, November’s tax revenue will be in line with the average of the past 10 months. This would result in a 19 percent increase in national revenue by December 2024, reaching about 95 percent of the target, leaving a potential shortfall of around 5 percent.

“I believe there is no sector that can boost tax revenue in the final months of 2024. The economy is slowing down, likely due to the effects of the presidential transition. As a result, the economic machine is operating below normal,” Raden concluded.