Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) posted a mild rebound at the open, mirroring Wall Street gains, yet lingering concerns over energy shocks and geopolitics kept sentiment restrained.

JCI rose 29 points, or 0.41%, to 7,158 at the open, moving within a narrow range of 7,157–7,172.

Early trading showed solid activity. A total of 1.32 billion shares changed hands, with transaction value reaching Rp 693.88 billion ($40.3 million) across 104,645 trades. Gainers outpaced losers, with 337 stocks advancing, 180 declining, and 182 unchanged.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 7,165, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.6% to 24,837, supported by technology stocks, particularly Intel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, slipped 0.16% to 49,231.

According to Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, the recent strength in US equities may not fully reflect emerging downside risks. “Despite the strong performance, future guidance is beginning to weaken. Companies like P&G warned of potential pressure up to $1 billion on profits due to the spike in energy prices. This indicates that current strong earnings have not yet fully reflected future cost risks,” the brokerage said.

Market sentiment remains highly sensitive to US-Iran geopolitical developments. “Optimism briefly emerged from the potential restart of peace negotiations; the market even began pricing in the possibility of de-escalation, reflected in the weakening of defense stocks and the rise of risk assets,” Kiwoom noted.

However, conditions on the ground remain fragile. A partial ceasefire persists, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with ongoing ship attacks and naval blockades. Iran has labeled the blockade an act of war, while the United States continues to maintain military pressure.

Oil prices have surged amid uncertainty over the critical shipping route. Although a ceasefire is technically in place, tankers in the Persian Gulf have been unable to pass through the narrow corridor, disrupting crude deliveries.

Kiwoom highlighted three key catalysts for the week ahead: corporate earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics. “This week is crucial with three main catalysts: earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics,” it said. “More than a third of S&P 500 companies will report performance, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple, with a focus on AI spending and data centers as the main pillars of the rally.”

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates, adopting a wait-and-see stance amid rising energy-driven inflation. Investors will closely watch first-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data for signals on the future policy path.

Geopolitical risks remain centered on the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the route remains closed, inflation pressures and risks to global growth are likely to persist.

On the domestic front, the government is targeting second-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 5.7% YoY, accelerating from 5.12% in the same period last year and above the first-quarter 2026 projection of 5.5%. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the government will push for stronger growth throughout April–June to meet the target.

Meanwhile, Investment Minister and Danantara CEO Rosan Roeslani recently met President Prabowo Subianto to accelerate downstream projects across 13 locations. The initiatives will focus on waste-to-energy, minerals, agriculture, labor-intensive industries, and garments, while expanding into agriculture and fisheries beyond the previously dominant energy and mineral sectors.

Across Asia, markets moved broadly higher. As of 9:15 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.36% to 60,530, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.88% to 6,597, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.18%, and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.17% to 4,086.

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