Jakarta. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index opened higher on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous session’s sharp selloff even as investors remained cautious over escalating US-Iran tensions, soaring oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming MSCI rebalancing review.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 41 points, or 0.6%, to 6,946 in early trading, moving within a range of 6,938 to 6,967.

Market data from RTI showed 901.73 million shares changed hands in the opening minutes, with trading value reaching Rp 333.17 billion ($19.04 million) across 66,561 transactions. Gainers outpaced losers, with 313 stocks advancing, 112 declining, and 223 unchanged.

Global sentiment remained overshadowed by the worsening standoff between the United States and Iran after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to end the war, calling it “totally unacceptable” because Iran refused to halt its nuclear activities.

Trump also described the US-Iran ceasefire as “extremely fragile” and “on massive life support.”

Iran has demanded an end to the war across all conflict fronts, recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, an end to the US naval blockade, and compensation for war damages.

Trump said Washington is reconsidering “Project Freedom,” a military operation aimed at ensuring commercial ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude oil surged 2.9% to settle at $104.21 per barrel after Trump’s remarks raised concerns that the conflict could escalate further. Oil prices have climbed sharply from around $70 previously as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to trap tankers in the Persian Gulf, fueling fears of renewed global inflation pressures.

The geopolitical situation has also increased attention on Trump’s upcoming visit to China, where he is expected to urge President Xi Jinping to pressure Iran into making concessions. China remains the largest buyer of Iran’s sanctioned crude oil.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said investors were also monitoring developments at the US Federal Reserve.

“Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair ends this Friday. Trump has appointed former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Powell’s replacement, and the US Senate is expected to approve the appointment this week,” Kiwoom said in its research note.

Domestically, sentiment remained fragile after the JCI dropped 0.92% on Monday ahead of MSCI’s quarterly index review scheduled for May 12. Kiwoom said the market was bracing for a possible reduction in Indonesia’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from around 0.72% to 0.56%.

Investors are also anticipating the potential removal of Dian Swastatika Sentosa  (DSSA) and Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) from the MSCI index, alongside the possible downgrade of several stocks into the MSCI Small Cap Index.

The concerns have triggered defensive positioning among investors and fears of passive foreign fund outflows. Foreign investors booked a net sell of Rp 659.16 billion on Monday, bringing cumulative year-to-date foreign outflows to Rp 48.48 trillion.

Phintraco Sekuritas said additional pressure stemmed from uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s planned mining royalty tariff adjustments for commodities including copper, tin, nickel, gold, and silver.

Although the Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia previously said the policy implementation would be postponed, the Finance Minister Purbaya later confirmed the revised royalty rates would take effect in early June 2026.

From a technical perspective, Phintraco said the JCI remained vulnerable.

“The negative MACD histogram is weakening again, while the Stochastic RSI has formed a death cross in the pivot area. The JCI is expected to continue weakening and test support at 6,750-6,850,” Phintraco said.

Still, the brokerage noted Indonesia’s consumer confidence index remained relatively stable at 123 in April 2026, compared with 122.9 in March. Perceptions of current economic conditions also improved slightly, with the sub-index rising 1.1 points to 116.5.

Investors are now awaiting Indonesia’s March retail sales data, due later Tuesday, which is forecast to grow 6.8% year-on-year.

Across Asia at 9:07 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.56%, while China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.12%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.3%.

On Wall Street overnight, the S&P 500 climbed 0.2% from its previous record high set on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 95 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to a fresh all-time high.

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