Jakarta. Indonesian stocks opened higher on Monday, but gains were capped as markets swung between optimism and renewed geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 29 points, or 0.39%, to 7,663 at the open, moving within a range of 7,654–7,671 in early trade.

Data from RTI showed 1.12 million shares traded in the opening minutes, with transaction value reaching Rp 511.61 billion ($29.8 million) across 105,899 trades. Advancers outpaced decliners, with 292 stocks rising, 173 falling, and 235 unchanged.

The broader market narrative remains highly volatile and contradictory. Optimism on Friday, driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for a US–Iran deal, quickly reversed over the weekend.

Iran reportedly reclosed the strait and attacked commercial vessels, while the United States seized an Iranian cargo ship and tightened its blockade. Uncertainty has intensified due to internal divisions in Iran between the civilian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has acted independently, including firing at commercial vessels after the government had reopened the route.

“This condition shows that the diplomatic path is very fragile and not entirely within a single chain of command. Nevertheless, both sides still leave room for negotiation. The US sent a delegation to Pakistan, while US energy officials mentioned a deal is ‘not far away,’” Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said.

Still, Iran has rejected further negotiations and remains wary of potential US attacks, leaving markets in a headline-driven environment where sentiment rapidly swings between risk-on and risk-off.

Oil prices have retreated to levels seen in the early days of the conflict. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied on Friday after Iran signaled the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial tankers.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.2% to a fresh record high, marking a third consecutive week of gains, the longest streak since Halloween. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged as much as 1,100 points before closing up 868 points, or 1.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.5%.

However, such optimism has repeatedly proven fragile, with sharp reversals across equities, bonds, and oil as uncertainty over the conflict persists.

On the macro front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% and warned of rising recession risks if tensions persist. Global inflation projections were also revised upward, driven by surging energy and food prices.

According to Kiwoom, renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are again pressuring Indonesia’s energy supply chain. Two tankers operated by Pertamina International Shipping, Pertamina Pride and Gamsunoro, have been stranded in the Persian Gulf since early March 2026, carrying crude oil for domestic use and third-party cargo.

PIS, in coordination with the Foreign Affairs Ministry, continues intensive efforts to ensure crew safety and voyage readiness amid the rapidly evolving situation.

“This condition has finally forced Pertamina to decide on a price increase for non-subsidized fuel as of April 18, 2026,” Kiwoom said.

Pertamax Turbo is now priced at Rp 19,400 per liter and Dexlite at Rp 23,600 per liter, while key subsidized fuels, Pertamax, Pertalite, and Biosolar, remain unchanged.

Despite external pressures, JPMorgan noted that Indonesia remains relatively resilient to global energy shocks, supported by a diversified energy mix and the dominance of coal and domestic gas as buffers.

As part of a longer-term strategy, the government has confirmed plans to purchase Russian crude oil and expand energy cooperation, including potential refinery investments by Rosneft and Lukoil, although discussions remain at an early stage.

Kiwoom also highlighted strengthening domestic resilience, citing Indonesia’s plan to halt imports of seven major food commodities by 2026. The country is projected to record a rice surplus of 34.7 million tons against consumption of 31.1 million tons, leaving imports largely limited to soybeans, garlic, and beef.

Across Asia, markets moved higher on Monday morning. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1% to 59,068, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.15% to 6,263, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.51% to 26,293, and China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 0.52% to 4,072.

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