Jakarta. A fragile US-Iran ceasefire heading toward its deadline and MSCI’s continued restrictions dragged the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down 0.46% or 34 points to 7,559 on Tuesday, as investors stayed cautious despite gains across most Asian markets.

Trading activity remained active, with volume reaching 43 billion shares and turnover at Rp 17.7 trillion ($1.03 billion) across more than 2.7 million transactions. Gainers outnumbered losers at 386 to 264, while 168 stocks were unchanged.

Pilarmas Sekuritas said external sentiment was mixed, noting that most Asian markets moved higher on rising optimism over potential diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

“Market participants are closely monitoring developments in peace talks between the United States and Iran,” Pilarmas wrote in a Tuesday research note.

The firm added that optimism emerged after Iran signaled openness to further negotiations with Washington ahead of the ceasefire deadline. Tehran is reportedly set to send representatives for talks with US Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan later in the day.

However, uncertainty remains elevated after US President Donald Trump indicated he may not extend the ceasefire if no agreement is reached this week.

“This condition keeps global market volatility high,” Pilarmas said.

On the domestic front, pressure on Indonesian equities was also driven by MSCI’s decision to maintain restrictions on Indonesian stocks in its May 2026 review. The global index provider made no additions or adjustments to foreign inclusion factors.

The move dampened hopes of a rebalancing that could have triggered fresh foreign inflows. “Instead, this policy could potentially lead to a reduction in Indonesia’s weight among global investment managers who track MSCI indices,” Pilarmas explained.

Despite the broader decline, several stocks posted sharp gains. Formosa Ingredient Factory (BOBA) rose 34.91%, Trimitra Propertindo (LAND) gained 34.72%, LCK Global Kedaton (LCKM) surged 34.48%, and Pikko Land Development (RODA) climbed 34.29%.

On the losing side, Golden Flower (POLU) dropped 14.95% and Ifishdeco (IFSH) fell 14.75%. Dian Swastatika (DSSA) slid 14.98% after MSCI signaled a likely removal due to high shareholding concentration, alongside Barito Renewables Energy (BREN). Asia Pramulia (ASPR) declined 8.47%.

Across the region, equities were mostly higher. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.9% to 59,349, supported by gains in technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron, which rose 3.5%, while SoftBank Group surged 8.5% on optimism tied to artificial intelligence-related investments.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.7% to 6,388. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.5% to 26,481, and the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1% to 4,085.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from its all-time high on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%.

Lingering concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply from the Persian Gulf, particularly if Iran blocks tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, continue to weigh on sentiment.

The next key deadline falls Tuesday night at 8 p.m. Eastern time, or early Wednesday in Tehran, when the current US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire.

“The current dynamic is one of a precarious balance of truce,” Mizuho Bank said in a commentary, adding that “as the ceasefire draws to its two-week deadline, the all-consuming question is whether both sides can seize on the talks to land on a US-Iran deal that ends the war.”

For now, oil prices remain well below the $119 per barrel level for Brent crude seen at peak fears, and the S&P 500 still trades above pre-conflict levels.

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