Jakarta. Indonesia’s latest MSCI index reshuffle is unlikely to be the market’s biggest concern, with investors now shifting focus to the upcoming MSCI Market Accessibility Review in June, which could determine whether the country avoids the risk of being downgraded to frontier market status.

MSCI Inc. announced the results of its May 2026 index review on May 12 US time, with all changes set to take effect after market close on May 29.

According to Stockbit Sekuritas, the more critical catalyst will be MSCI’s June 2026 Market Accessibility Review, which will determine whether restrictions such as the Foreign Inclusion Factor/Number of Shares (FIF/NOS) freeze -- which limits adjustments to foreign ownership factors and investable share counts -- as well as restrictions on additions to the Investable Market Index (IMI) and upward size-segment migrations, will be lifted ahead of the next review cycle in August 2026.

“The review will also provide further confirmation or signals that the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to frontier market status is no longer a threat,” Stockbit Sekuritas wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

In the May 2026 review, MSCI removed six Indonesian stocks from the MSCI Global Standard Index and excluded 13 stocks from the MSCI Small Cap Index. However, one stock removed from the Global Standard Index was reclassified into the Small Cap Index.

The six Indonesian companies deleted from the MSCI Global Standard Index were Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Barito Renewables Energy (BREN), Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), Petrindo Kaya Kreasi (CUAN), and Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT).

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT), however, was added to the MSCI Small Cap Index.

Meanwhile, the 13 Indonesian companies removed from the MSCI Small Cap Index included Aneka Tambang, (ANTM) Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), Bank Aladin Syariah (BANK), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE), Dharma Satya Nusantara (DSNG), Sido Muncul (SIDO), Midi Utama Indonesia (MIDI), Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA), MNC Digital Entertainment (MSIN), Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM), Pacific Strategic Financial (APIC), Sawit Sumbermas Sarana (SSMS), and Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG).

Stockbit said the May review largely matched market expectations, as MSCI maintained its freeze on the Indonesian market, resulting in no new additions to the MSCI Global Standard Indexes.

The brokerage also noted that MSCI proceeded with the deletion of stocks categorized as having high shareholding concentration (HSC), including Barito Renewables Energy and Dian Swastatika Sentosa, in line with precedents previously applied in Hong Kong. MSCI also adjusted free-float calculations affecting several non-HSC constituents.

“The deletion of HSC stocks such as BREN and DSSA was already flagged by MSCI in April. Both stocks could face selling pressure from passive funds around the effective rebalancing date on May 29, 2026,” Stockbit said.

Regarding the removal of non-HSC stocks — AMMN, TPIA, CUAN —  as well as AMRT’s downgrade to the Small Cap Index, Stockbit said the moves likely reflected lower free-float adjustments by MSCI using shareholding data above 1% from Indonesia Central Securities Depository (KSEI), a risk the brokerage had previously highlighted.

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