Jakarta. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa says Indonesia is not facing an energy emergency, even as the Philippines declares a national energy crisis, while warning the government remains cautious about a prolonged Middle East conflict that could disrupt global oil supplies.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Purbaya stressed that Indonesia’s domestic energy supply remains secure, arguing that an energy emergency should be defined by supply disruptions rather than price spikes.

“An energy emergency is not about the state budget. It’s about supply. If supply stops, that’s what we should worry about. For now, supply is still available. So it’s not an emergency, but we must stay prepared going forward,” he said.

His remarks followed a decision by Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. to declare a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The move reflects the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported oil, making it vulnerable to disruptions in global production and distribution as tensions rise over the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Global oil markets have turned volatile since the escalation of the conflict in late February, with prices fluctuating sharply and hovering near $100 per barrel. Brent crude has recently traded above that level, reflecting fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Indonesia’s 2026 state budget assumes an Indonesian crude price of $70 per barrel, well below current market levels. As of Thursday, Brent crude rose 1.3% to $103.6 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.5% to $91.66, underscoring mounting pressure from global energy markets.

Purbaya said Indonesia’s 2026 state budget remains resilient enough to absorb current oil price pressures, signaling no immediate need to revise fiscal assumptions or adjust energy subsidy policies.

“Our state budget can still withstand [the Iran war impact]. I will not change the budget or subsidies until the price reaches sky-high,” Purbaya told reporters in Jakarta.

The minister added that the government assesses the impact of oil price movements based on annual averages rather than short-term volatility, suggesting recent fluctuations are still manageable.

“We calculate based on the yearly average. The budget assumptions are set for a full year, so one or two days of price increases won’t significantly affect the average,” he said.

Purbaya said the increase remains modest and within the government’s capacity to manage through existing fiscal buffers and policy tools.

“Currently, it’s only about a $4 increase. We can easily cover that from various sources and reserves we have. There’s no need to worry at this point,” he said.

He also dismissed concerns that rising oil prices would immediately trigger changes to Indonesia’s fuel subsidy scheme, noting there are no current plans to restrict or adjust subsidized fuel.

“As far as I know, there are no restrictions. There’s no need to disturb the subsidy budget yet. It’s too early,” Purbaya said.

Still, he acknowledged that a prolonged surge in oil prices could prompt a reassessment of fiscal impacts, though any policy response would be measured rather than reactive.

“If prices continue to rise significantly over time, then we will recalculate the impact. But it won’t automatically jump to $100. We always look at the average,” he said.