Jakarta. Indonesia is weighing a measured relaxation of coal and nickel production quotas if global prices remain elevated, signaling a potential shift from its earlier plan to curb output and stabilize markets.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the government is closely tracking market dynamics before making any move. “If prices remain stable and favorable, we may implement what we call a measured relaxation of the production plan,” Bahlil said in a statement after meeting President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta on Thursday.

He stressed that any adjustment would be carefully calibrated. “All decisions will remain aligned with market conditions and the balance between supply and demand,” he added.

Balancing Global Markets
As the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal and nickel products, Indonesia plays a pivotal role in shaping global prices. The government had previously considered trimming production quotas this year to prevent oversupply and support prices.

The national coal output quota was initially set at 600 million metric tons, sharply lower than last year’s realization of 790 million tons. Meanwhile, nickel ore production quotas under the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) stand at around 260–270 million tons.

That nickel quota still falls short of domestic smelter demand. Industry groups, including the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) and the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), estimate demand could reach 340–350 million tons this year.

Industry Response
The potential relaxation has been welcomed by industry players seeking to secure raw material supply. FINI chairman Arif Perdana Kusumah voiced support for the plan, saying greater flexibility would help ensure feedstock availability for smelters.

However, no official revisions have been made to the production quotas listed in the ministry’s system.

Under existing regulations, mining companies must submit annual RKAB plans for government approval. Authorities retain full discretion to revise these documents in response to shifts in domestic or global economic conditions.

Indonesia has become a key player in the global energy and technology supply chain, particularly through its push for downstream processing of nickel, a critical component in electric vehicle batteries. The RKAB quota system remains a central tool to prevent oversupply that could depress prices, though tight limits have also raised concerns over meeting the fast-growing needs of domestic downstream industries.