Jakarta. Think-tank Celios revealed that Indonesia could lose Rp 68.67 trillion or approximately $4.1 billion from the cyclone-induced floods and landslides hitting Sumatra.

The estimates encompassed the economic losses on a national scale and took into account the available data as of Nov. 30. 

Disasters have far-reaching consequences. A disaster occurring in one province can cut off transportation access, thus disrupting flows of goods needed by end consumers and industries across the archipelago. North Sumatra is a key industrial site, thus reflecting the gravity of the financial impact. The Sumatra disasters have led to a national gross domestic product (GDP) decline of Rp 68.67 trillion or around 0.29 percent, Celios revealed.

“This figure encompasses damage to homes, roads, and bridge infrastructure, among others. It includes loss of household income and agricultural production,” Bhima Yudhistira, the executive director of Celios, said Monday.

The catastrophe has dealt a financial damage of Rp 2.04 trillion in Aceh. The disaster has also cost North Sumatra around Rp 2.07 trillion. Estimates revealed that West Sumatra’s economy had shrunk by Rp 2.01 trillion. 

Jakarta -- Indonesia's capital which is far away from the disaster site -- even suffers Rp 1.88 trillion in estimated economic losses. The figures are the highest in Jambi and Bengkulu, standing at Rp 2.08 trillion, respectively. Both provinces are on Sumatra Island. Celios estimated Rp 2.08 trillion worth of losses in North Maluku despite being located on the opposite side of the country.

“Land conversion due to deforestation, oil palm plantations, and mining are what have caused ecological disasters … We need an immediate moratorium on mining permits and oil palm plantation expansion,” Bhima said.

Death Toll Climbs as Clock Ticks

Indonesia’s disaster authorities reported that the Sumatra floods and landslides had killed at least 631 people, and left 2,600 individuals injured as of Tuesday. About 472 people’s whereabouts remain unknown. Around 3,500 houses sustained severedamages. 

President Prabowo Subianto had traveled to the disaster-hit areas on Monday.

Despite the soaring civilian casualties, Prabowo chose not to rush with imposing a national emergency --  a status that can speed up coordination. Prabowo told the press at the time that the “situation had improved” when asked if he planned on raising the emergency status. The retired army general would also keep an eye on the latest developments.

Indonesia’s emergency statuses start from city or regional level, to provincial, and the highest of all: national. The government takes into account the death toll, financial losses, infrastructure damage, and socio-economic impact before declaring a national emergency.