Jakarta. Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto said on Monday that Indonesia is relatively resilient against the risk of a global energy crisis, citing the country’s limited dependence on energy supplies from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz.

His remarks came amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, with the conflict affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Many Asian countries are highly dependent on the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, but Indonesia is not. Indonesia’s dependence is around 20%,” Airlangga said during a National Policy Dialogue in Jakarta.

He noted that several Asian countries have much higher exposure to Middle Eastern energy supplies. During the ASEAN Zero Emission Community (AZEC) forum, some countries were cited as relying on the region for as much as 70% of their energy needs.

According to Airlangga, Indonesia’s position is stronger because the national energy mix continues to be supported largely by domestic resources, particularly coal and natural gas. This reduces the impact of global supply disruptions compared with countries that rely heavily on imported oil.

“Indonesia has been able to maintain resilience because it is not overly dependent on the Middle East. Most of the energy mix for electricity generation is based on coal and gas,” he said.

He added that the composition of Indonesia’s energy sources also strengthens the broader economy during periods of global volatility. If supply disruptions persist, countries dependent on Middle Eastern imports could face surging energy prices, inflation, and rising production costs.

Airlangga also said JPMorgan Asset Management ranked Indonesia as the world’s second most resilient country against global energy shocks.

From a macroeconomic perspective, he said Indonesia’s fundamentals remain strong. Economic growth in 2025 reached 5.11%, while the government has set a 2026 target of 5.4%. For the first quarter of 2026, growth is projected to reach at least 5.5%.

Domestic consumption remains the main growth driver, contributing around 54% of gross domestic product. Consumer confidence stood at 122.9, while Indonesia’s trade balance has recorded a surplus for 70 consecutive months.

Given those conditions, the government believes Indonesia still has room to expand despite persistent global pressures. Airlangga added that several international institutions estimate Indonesia’s recession probability at below 5%, lower than advanced economies such as the United States, Japan, and Canada.

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