Jakarta. Director General of Oil and Gas at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, Tutuka Ariadji, assures that fuel prices at gas stations will remain stable until at least June 2024, despite the escalating Iran-Israel conflict potentially pushing oil prices to $100 (Rp 1.56 million) per barrel.

"Yes, fuel prices will remain unchanged until June," said Tutuka in response to inquiries about potential fuel price hikes due to anticipated increases in global oil prices, on Monday.

The ministry has already conducted simulations on how the Middle East conflict escalation might affect oil prices, considering various parameters such as exchange rates and the Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP).

"We will communicate these simulations to the relevant parties, with hopes they can make informed decisions," Tutuka said in a webinar titled "Discussing the Impact of the Iran-Israel Conflict on the Indonesian Economy," organized by the Eisenhower Fellowships Indonesia Alumni Chapter.

Tutuka said oil prices are likely to reach $100 per barrel following Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel on Saturday. Earlier this month, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard said that seven of its members, including two generals, were killed in an airstrike that struck Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria.

"With this new conflict between Iran and Israel, the oil price is not far from the $100 mark. There is a high possibility that the ICP will increase to $100 per barrel," Tutuka stated.

Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that as of April 12, the ICP stands at $89.51 per barrel, surpassing the government's macro assumption of $82 per barrel stated in the 2024 State Budget.

"If we look at the ICP from February, it has been continuously increasing from March to April, by approximately $5 per month," Tutuka added.

Currently, Tutuka continued, the government is awaiting Israel's response to Iran's attack, which will determine whether global oil prices will rise steadily or experience a sudden spike.

Former Trade Minister and economist Mari Elka Pangestu predicts that the United States will impose sanctions on Iran, a country producing 3 million barrels of oil per day.

"Oil prices will increase if there is an escalation," Mari stated.

In addition to global oil, Mari pointed out that the price of gold, as a safe-haven instrument, is also predicted to rise.