Jakarta. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa dismissed claims that Indonesia’s economy is heading toward a recession, saying available data show the country’s growth and consumer activity remain strong.

Speaking to reporters at the office of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs in Jakarta on Monday, the Indonesian finance minister said the government sees no signs of an economic crisis despite warnings from some economists.

“We are not in a crisis. The economy is still doing well and people are still spending,” Purbaya said.

He pointed to steady economic growth and resilient consumption as evidence that Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains on solid footing.

Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.39% in the fourth quarter of 2025, Purbaya said, adding that the government expects growth in the first quarter of 2026 to reach around 5.5%, with the possibility of a stronger performance.

Beyond growth figures, he cited several indicators that continue to show improving economic activity, including the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), consumer confidence surveys, retail sales data and vehicle sales.

According to Purbaya, these indicators, compiled by different institutions, paint a consistent picture of an economy that is still expanding.

“There is the PMI. There is consumer confidence surveyed by the central bank and the deposit insurance agency. There is also the retail sales index from the central bank. All of them are rising,” he said.

Car sales, in particular, have shown a notable recovery. Purbaya said vehicle sales grew around 7% recently after recording negative growth last year, a development he described as a sign that household purchasing power remains intact.

“The growth is quite strong. It’s about 7% now. Last year it was negative, but now it has turned positive,” he said.

He also pointed to the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI), an indicator of household consumption based on banking transaction data, which has remained on an upward trend.

According to Purbaya, when various indicators from different institutions converge in the same direction, they provide strong evidence that economic activity remains healthy.

“If you look at the data, they all point to the same direction. It shows the economy is indeed doing well,” he said.

Purbaya urged analysts and commentators to rely on accurate data when assessing Indonesia’s economic conditions, warning that unfounded negative narratives could undermine confidence.

“Look at the correct data. If the economy is weak, we will fix it. But if it is already strong, we need to see what exactly needs to be improved,” he said.

He added that some of the pessimistic commentary circulating in public discussions appears to focus more on perception than on data-driven analysis.

“It only creates negative sentiment toward the economy,” he said.

Earlier this month, Purbaya also highlighted signs of strengthening consumption at the start of the year. The Mandiri Spending Index rose to 360.7 in February 2026, reflecting increased household spending.

He said the rise in consumption was driven primarily by purchases of consumer goods, education-related spending and higher mobility ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

The strengthening consumption trend is also reflected in other indicators, including positive retail sales growth and a consumer confidence index that has consistently remained above the 100 level, signaling optimism among households.

“These indicators show that household consumption remains solid and public expectations about the economy are still optimistic,” Purbaya said.

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