Jakarta. Most economists expect Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate at 4.75 percent at the November 2025 Board of Governors Meeting scheduled for announcement on Wednesday.

Maybank Indonesia Global Markets Economist Myrdal Gunarto said maintaining the current rate is the most reasonable option amid the rupiah’s continued volatility and weaker trend against the US dollar. According to him, the currency’s movement still calls for stabilization measures from the central bank.

Myrdal also pointed to increasing global uncertainty, with market views split on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction next month even as expectations grow that US interest rates will remain unchanged. “This, in my view, is the main factor driving BI to hold the benchmark rate at 4.75 percent this month,” said Myrdal.

A similar view came from Teuku Riefky, Macroeconomics and Financial Market Economist at the University of Indonesia’s Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM). He said inflationary pressure has started to pick up and could rise further heading into seasonal demand peaks.

At the same time, capital outflows have accelerated despite the Fed’s rate cut in October. Between mid-October and mid-November, Indonesia saw net outflows amounting to $950 million from its bond and equity markets, largely due to foreign selling in government securities.

Riefky attributed the trend to growing concerns over fiscal and quasi-fiscal risks, especially following the government’s plan to take over part of the Whoosh high-speed rail project’s debt.

The rupiah has since weakened from Rp 16,555 per US dollar in mid-October to around Rp 16,695 by mid-November, down roughly 0.85 percent.

Permata Bank’s Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Market Research, Faisal Rachman, also expects BI to keep the rate unchanged this month given persistent global uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. Still, he sees some room for easing.

“We still see the possibility of a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025, but this depends on inflation developments, the rupiah, and capital inflows, as well as how the Fed positions itself regarding further cuts to the Fed Funds Rate,” he said.

In contrast, Bank Syariah Indonesia Chief Economist Banjaran Surya Indrastomo projects a 25-basis-point cut this month to 4.50 percent. He said a more accommodative stance could help support economic momentum toward year-end.

“Room for easing has widened after the Fed’s rate cut in October,” he said.

Even so, Banjaran highlighted several risks that may limit future easing, including the rupiah’s recent weakness, Rp 9.6 trillion in government bond outflows from Nov. 1–13, and October inflation rising to 2.86 percent year-on-year.

“BI is therefore expected to keep adjusting its policies to maintain currency stability and remain attractive for foreign investors,” he said.

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