Jakarta. The National Economic Council (DEN) assessed that the United States’ tariff policy toward Indonesia has proven less severe than initially feared, with Indonesia’s access to the US market remaining competitive despite the continued application of reciprocal tariffs.

DEN Vice Chairwoman Mari Elka Pangestu said early projections suggested US tariffs would significantly suppress global trade. In practice, however, the impact has been more moderate.

“Initially, the tariff call was high. Then it gradually declined and many exemptions were introduced, meaning only around 10% of US imports were actually subject to tariffs,” Mari said during the Economic Outlook 2026 webinar on Thursday.

Under the latest agreement, Indonesia has agreed to eliminate import duties on most US-origin products. In return, Washington reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%.

Several of Indonesia’s key export commodities, including crude palm oil (CPO), coffee, and cocoa, are also exempt from the 19% tariff.

Mari noted that Indonesia’s trade performance has partly been supported by front loading, or accelerated exports ahead of tariff implementation. Many countries, including Indonesia, increased shipments to the US in anticipation of higher duties.

At the same time, US companies built up inventories to cushion potential price increases, helping keep inflationary pressure relatively contained.

Data from the Trade Ministry showed Indonesia’s exports to the US grew 16.6% throughout 2025, although Indonesia still recorded a trade deficit with the country.

“It turns out that despite our earlier concerns, the impact was not as high as expected and our exports to the United States continued to grow, even though we still run a deficit with the US,” she added.

Looking ahead, Mari warned of potential global economic slowing in 2026, in line with International Monetary Fund projections, which could weaken demand for energy commodities, coal, and palm oil.

She also welcomed the government’s efforts to expand market access through trade agreements, including with the European Union and the United States. If the Indonesia–US tariff agreement is formally signed by President Prabowo Subianto and US President Donald Trump, DEN expects Indonesia to secure more competitive tariff treatment than regional peers such as Vietnam, China, and India.

“Especially if we can finalize the agreement with the United States and gain relatively better market access than our competitors, this would be a major opportunity to attract investment and ultimately create jobs,” Mari said.

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