Jakarta. Rupiah weakened against the US dollar at Monday’s close, pressured by a firmer greenback and mounting global geopolitical uncertainty.

The currency slipped 15 points, or about 0.09%, to Rp 16,740 per dollar, compared with Friday’s close of Rp 16,725. At the same time, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.68.

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said the rupiah’s decline was largely driven by renewed external pressures, particularly escalating geopolitical tensions and US policy moves.

Markets, he noted, were closely watching aggressive US actions in Venezuela after American officials confirmed the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation in Caracas. Maduro was later flown to the United States to face a number of longstanding criminal charges. “This operation marks the most significant direct US intervention in Venezuela in decades and has drawn criticism from several countries,” Ibrahim said on Monday.

US President Donald Trump described Maduro’s arrest as a “decisive step” against what he called a criminal regime, while pledging that Washington would ensure a “safe and orderly” political transition in Venezuela.

Ibrahim added that Trump also issued warnings of possible action against countries seen as opposing US policies, including Colombia and Iran, and revived rhetoric about taking over Greenland. The combination of statements and military actions has heightened global geopolitical uncertainty. Some analysts warned that Washington’s moves could set a precedent for other major powers, such as China and Russia, ultimately reinforcing the US dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

From Asia, Ibrahim said markets were also monitoring China’s plans to add more economic stimulus to boost domestic consumption. Beijing announced a 62.5 trillion yuan ($8.94 billion) program to extend subsidies for electronics and other consumer goods through the end of December.

Domestically, positive sentiment came from Indonesia’s trade performance. Data from the Badan Pusat Statistik showed the country posted a $2.66 billion trade surplus in November 2025.

“With this result, Indonesia has recorded a trade surplus for 67 consecutive months since May 2020,” Ibrahim said.

Exports in November 2025 totaled $22.52 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year, mainly due to weaker non-oil and gas shipments, including mineral fuels, animal and vegetable fats and oils, and iron and steel. Imports fell 0.46% YoY to $19.86 billion.

The November surplus was largely supported by a $4.64 billion non-oil and gas surplus, driven by animal and vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, and iron and steel.

Despite the continued surplus, Ibrahim cautioned that economists are increasingly alert to the risk of a narrower trade balance in 2026 amid softer global demand and volatile commodity prices.

“For Tuesday’s trade, the rupiah is expected to move sideways with a weakening bias in the Rp 16,740–16,770 per dollar range, as the strong dollar and global uncertainty continue to weigh,” he said.

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