Jakarta. The rupiah opened weaker on Monday, sliding 33 points or 0.20 percent to Rp 16,634 per US dollar from its previous close at Rp 16,601.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said the local currency remains under pressure from the government’s expansionary policies and widening budget deficit.

“Loose fiscal measures and concerns over the fiscal gap continue to weigh on the rupiah,” Lukman told reporters in Jakarta on Monday.

The policies include the government’s Rp 200 trillion fund placement in state-owned banks, the Rp 16.23 trillion stimulus package, and the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program.

Markets are also factoring in the higher deficit outlook in the 2026 state budget bill. The fiscal shortfall is now set at Rp 689.1 trillion, equivalent to 2.68 percent of GDP, compared with the earlier draft of Rp 638.8 trillion or 2.48 percent of GDP.

On the monetary side, Bank Indonesia’s recent decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.00 percent has added pressure to the rupiah. The central bank also lowered the deposit facility rate to 4.25 percent and the lending facility to 5.75 percent.

Globally, the dollar strengthened after the US Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone following its latest policy meeting, further weighing on emerging-market currencies, including the rupiah.

Still, Lukman expects BI to step in with a “triple intervention” across the spot market, non-deliverable forward (NDF), and government bond market to stabilize the currency. He projects the rupiah will move within Rp 16,500–Rp 16,650 per dollar range throughout the day.

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