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Rupiah May Hit 17,000 on Trump’s Russia Warning, Tax Amnesty Concerns

Indah Handayani
September 25, 2025 | 12:57 pm
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A bank staffer arranges American dollar and Indonesian rupiah bank notes at a Bank Syariah Indonesia branch in Bekasi on Feb. 21, 2025. (Antara Photo/Fakhri Hermansyah)
A bank staffer arranges American dollar and Indonesian rupiah bank notes at a Bank Syariah Indonesia branch in Bekasi on Feb. 21, 2025. (Antara Photo/Fakhri Hermansyah)

Jakarta. The rupiah weakened against the US dollar on Thursday, dragged down by mounting global uncertainties and negative domestic sentiment surrounding the government’s stance on tax amnesty.

Bloomberg data showed the local currency slid 56 points, or 0.34 percent, to Rp 16,740.5 per dollar. This followed a slight rebound of 3 points, or 0.02 percent, to Rp 16,684.5 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index eased 0.12 percent to 97.75.

Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of Laba Forexindo Berjangka, warned that the rupiah may weaken further in the near term. “If the rupiah breaches Rp 16,800, it could head toward Rp 17,000 in October,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, the rupiah came under pressure after US President Trump adopted a more aggressive tone toward Russia in his address at the UN General Assembly. Trump warned European nations against buying Russian oil and threatened harsher sanctions targeting Moscow’s energy flows.

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“Such measures risk further disrupting Russian exports and may trigger retaliation from Moscow,” Ibrahim said on Thursday. He added that Ukraine, backed by NATO and US arms supplies, continues to strike Russian oil facilities and export terminals to weaken the Kremlin’s revenues.

Domestically,Finance  Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa reiterated the government’s rejection of a new tax amnesty program under President Prabowo Subianto. Markets viewed the absence of such a policy negatively.

“Tax amnesty was carried out three times under President Joko Widodo and consistently boosted market confidence,” Ibrahim said. “Investors are waiting for similar measures to attract fresh capital and support the rupiah.”

He also pointed out that Bank Indonesia’s interventions in the currency market have had limited impact amid heightened global speculation.

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