Jakarta. Rupiah firmed at the start of the week, closing stronger on Monday as shifting Federal Reserve expectations and improving US data lifted sentiment.

The currency ended Monday’s session at Rp 16,699 against the US dollar, up 17 points from Rp 16,716 a day earlier. It had briefly strengthened by 25 points during afternoon trade.

The move came as recent speeches from Federal Reserve officials and fresh US economic indicators signaled a solid economy with a resilient labor market but stubbornly high prices. The CME FedWatch Tool now places the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December at around 69 percent, up sharply from roughly 44 percent a week ago.

“The jump in expectations reflects comments by New York Fed’s John Williams, hinting that policy adjustments may be on the table soon,” said Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director at Traze Andalan Futures. “Still, several Fed officials have warned that inflation remains too high and the labor market too tight for cuts at this stage, so nothing is guaranteed.”

Ibrahim added that traders will likely rely on “mixed economic signals” and upcoming data releases for direction. The US PPI and retail sales reports, both due Tuesday, are expected to show a 0.3 percent MoM rise in producer prices for September and a 0.4 percent MoM gain in retail sales.

Sentiment also improved after the US and Ukraine made progress in peace talks with Russia. US President Donald Trump has pushed for an agreement by Thursday, though European leaders are urging stronger terms. A peace deal could ease sanctions that have curbed Russian oil exports, adding another layer of support for risk assets, including the rupiah.

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