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Rupiah Gains as Market Bets on Fed Rate Cut, Consumer Confidence Rises

Natasha Khairunisa Amani
November 10, 2025 | 6:16 pm
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A bank staffer arranges American dollar and Indonesian rupiah bank notes at a Bank Syariah Indonesia branch in Bekasi on Feb. 21, 2025. (Antara Photo/Fakhri Hermansyah)
A bank staffer arranges American dollar and Indonesian rupiah bank notes at a Bank Syariah Indonesia branch in Bekasi on Feb. 21, 2025. (Antara Photo/Fakhri Hermansyah)

Jakarta. The rupiah strengthened at the start of the week, closing higher on Monday, November 10, 2025, as market sentiment improved both globally and domestically.

The local currency gained 36 points against the US dollar, ending Monday’s trade at Rp 16,654 from Rp 16,690 the previous day. Earlier in the session, the rupiah had briefly strengthened by as much as 45 points.

Traze Andalan Futures Director Ibrahim Assuaibi said the rupiah’s gains came amid continued speculation that the US Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December, following a string of weak labor market data last week.

“The data increased market expectations that the Fed may move to prevent further labor market deterioration,” Ibrahim said in a written statement on Monday.

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He added that sentiment also improved after the US Senate voted 60–40 to advance a spending bill that could end the country’s longest-ever government shutdown. The final vote is expected in the coming days. The bill’s passage would allow the release of key US economic data, potentially influencing the rupiah’s near-term direction.

Domestically, the rupiah was also supported by stronger consumer confidence. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumped to 121.2 in October, up sharply from 115.0 in September, signaling robust optimism about the national economy.

A CCI reading above 100 suggests that Indonesian consumers are generally optimistic and confident about the country’s economic prospects.

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