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Rupiah Edges Up as Fed Cut and Jobless Spike Hit Dollar

Natasha Khairunisa Amani
December 12, 2025 | 4:52 pm
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Rupiah and US dollar banknotes are displayed at a foreign exchange service in Jakarta, Monday, Jul. 2, 2018. (Antara Photo/Puspa Perwitasari)
Rupiah and US dollar banknotes are displayed at a foreign exchange service in Jakarta, Monday, Jul. 2, 2018. (Antara Photo/Puspa Perwitasari)

Jakarta. Rupiah strengthened on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected US labor data and a recent Federal Reserve rate cut.

The local currency closed 29 points stronger at Rp 16,647 against the dollar, trimming earlier gains of 50 points from Thursday’s close of Rp 16,676.

The move followed a sharp rise in US Initial Jobless Claims, which jumped to 236,000 for the week ending December 6, up from a revised 192,000, according to the US Labor Department.

“This weaker-than-expected jobs data weighed on the dollar,” said Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director at Traze Andalan Futures, in a written statement on Friday.

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The rupiah also found support after the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point cut in a split vote, bringing the benchmark range down to 3.50 percent–3.75 percent, its lowest in three years. However, several Fed policymakers signaled a potential pause in further easing as they monitor labor-market trends and still-elevated inflation.

Markets are now pricing in a nearly 78 percent probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next month. Any shift in the Fed’s path is widely expected to influence rupiah performance.

Geopolitics also added undercurrents to Friday’s moves. The US is preparing to intercept more vessels carrying Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker earlier this week, a sign of rising pressure on President Nicolas Maduro.

Meanwhile, sentiment was tempered by ongoing peace efforts around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany holding a call with US President Donald Trump to discuss Washington’s latest initiative to end the war.

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