OECD Outlook: Global Growth at 3.9% in 2025, Indonesia at 4.9%
Jakarta. The global economy has shown more resilience than expected in the first half of 2025, but risks persist due to rising trade barriers and ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainties, according to the OECD Interim Economic Outlook.
Global growth is projected to slow slightly, from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025, before easing further to 2.9 percent in 2026. The moderation reflects stockpiles built ahead of tariffs being drawn down and continued pressures on investment and trade.
“The global economy has remained resilient, but the full effects of higher tariffs and policy uncertainty are yet to be felt. Significant risks remain, including fiscal and financial stability concerns,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. He called on governments to resolve trade tensions and ensure fair, rules-based global trade.
The OECD also urged central banks to stay vigilant, adjusting policy as needed, and recommended fiscal discipline to manage rising debt and budgetary pressures. Medium-term adjustment plans, spending reallocation, and revenue optimization are key to stabilizing debt levels.
“Structural reforms will be crucial to improving living standards and realizing gains from technologies such as artificial intelligence,” added OECD Chief Economist Álvaro Santos Pereira.
Inflation is moderating across most G20 economies as growth slows and labor pressures ease. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026, while core inflation in advanced G20 economies remains stable at 2.6 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026. For Indonesia, inflation is projected at 1.9 percent in 2025, rising to 2.7 percent in 2026, influenced by past currency depreciation.
Country forecasts:
- United States: GDP growth expected to fall to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026, affected by tariffs, slower net immigration, and federal workforce cuts.
- China: Growth projected at 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026, as front-loading unwinds, tariffs take effect, and fiscal support fades.
- Indonesia: Growth forecast at 4.9 percent in 2025 and remains at 4.9 percent in 2026, with previous investment rebounds giving short-term boosts. The Indonesian government aims for a 5.4 percent growth this year. The economy expanded by 5.12 percent in the second quarter.
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