Jakarta. Rupiah is expected to extend its weakness on Tuesday, with cautious sentiment persisting as global investors scale back hopes for a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

The currency fell 29 points against the dollar on Monday evening, closing at Rp 16,736, after briefly weakening by 40 points from Friday’s Rp 16,707.

“For Tuesday’s trade, the rupiah is likely to move in a volatile but weaker range of Rp 16,730–Rp 16,770,” Traze Andalan Futures Director Ibrahim Assuaibi said in a written statement.

Ibrahim noted that the rupiah remains stuck in the red zone as confidence fades over the Fed’s near-term policy easing.

“Sentiment is further hit by the recent blackout of US economic data due to the government shutdown, leaving investors without key macro indicators for weeks,” he said.

The US shutdown has delayed releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, including the September 2025 non-farm payrolls report.

Looking ahead, the rupiah will take cues from the dollar’s movements as investors digest statements from several Fed officials. Geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe are also weighing on sentiment, after Ukraine launched a major strike on energy facilities in Novorossiysk, disrupting exports equivalent to roughly 2 percent of global supply.

“Although loadings have resumed and eased the supply crunch, markets remain cautious,” Ibrahim added.

Domestically, the rupiah faces another drag after Bank Indonesia projected 2026 economic growth at 5.33 percent, slightly below the government’s 5.4 percent target in the state budget.

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