Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) staged an early rebound on Thursday, surging at the opening bell as a recovery in US equities lifted sentiment across Asian markets.

The benchmark index jumped 118.28 points or 1.56% to 7,695.34 in early trade, moving within the 7,694–7,737 range.

According to RTI data, around 1.53 billion shares had changed hands in the first minutes of trading, generating Rp 877.69 billion ($51.98 million) in turnover across 76,486 transactions.

Market breadth was firmly positive with 437 stocks advancing, 64 declining, and 128 remaining unchanged.

Phintraco Sekuritas noted that global investors remain cautious amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on risk appetite across regional markets.

“Adding to the negative sentiment, Fitch Ratings revised Indonesia’s outlook from stable to negative while maintaining the sovereign rating at BBB. The rupiah also closed weaker at Rp 16,892 per US dollar,” the brokerage wrote in a research note on Thursday.

The firm said the government has begun evaluating precautionary measures in response to the escalating conflict between Iran and the US–Israel alliance, particularly to ensure the country’s energy resilience.

Phintraco added that the rising tensions could disrupt global energy supply chains, especially crude oil flows originating from the Middle East.

“To mitigate potential supply risks, the government is exploring options to source crude oil from outside the Middle East, including the United States, where Pertamina has already established agreements with several US energy companies,” the brokerage said.

Phintraco also highlighted that the rally on Wall Street overnight could support a technical rebound for the JCI.

Separately, Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said global markets remain fragile as the conflict between the US–Israel coalition and Iran entered its fifth day, with airstrikes reportedly targeting more than 2,000 Iranian sites and weakening the country’s air defense systems.

Iran responded by launching missiles and drones toward Arab countries hosting US military bases, while NATO intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles heading toward Turkish airspace, the first time the alliance has defended a member state since the conflict began.

US President Donald Trump estimated that military operations could last four to five weeks, while US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the operation had only just started.

Markets briefly rallied on speculation that Iran might consider peace negotiations, though Tehran later denied the possibility.

“Goldman Sachs warned of the risk of short-term corrections in global equity markets due to geopolitical uncertainty, AI disruption, and already high valuations. The MSCI All Country World Index has fallen for five consecutive days and is now about 4% below its record high,” Kiwoom said.

The brokerage also highlighted Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise Indonesia’s outlook to negative while maintaining its BBB investment-grade rating, citing rising policy uncertainty and concerns about the consistency of fiscal and monetary policy amid the government’s ambitious growth targets.

According to Kiwoom, policy risks are increasing alongside the centralization of economic decision-making and discussions about revising the fiscal discipline framework, including the possibility of relaxing the 3% of GDP deficit limit, which could weaken macroeconomic policy credibility.

Still, regional market movements may support a short-term rebound.

Considering that Nikkei and Kospi opened strongly on Thursday morning, Kiwoom expects the JCI to stage a technical rebound after testing the previous support level near 7,480 in the prior session.

“However, the Fitch outlook downgrade adds to the list of negative domestic catalysts. Opening too many speculative buy positions is not recommended as volatility will remain high. If the 7,480 level fails to hold, the JCI may need to consolidate toward 7,335 before stabilizing,” the brokerage said.

Across Asia, equities opened sharply higher following the overnight rebound on Wall Street.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 surged 4.3% to 56,600, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed to 5,702, with trading temporarily halted after the index jumped sharply shortly after the open.

US equities recovered on Wednesday as oil prices cooled and fresh economic data offered reassurance about the strength of the American economy.

The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, trimming much of its losses since the conflict with Iran began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.3%.

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