Jakarta. Indonesia’s stock market is closing 2025 as one of Asia’s standout performers, extending a record-breaking run that has pushed the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) within striking distance of the long-watched 9,000 level.

The benchmark has gained 21.5 percent this year, trailing to Vietnam and the Philippines among major Southeast Asian markets. Vietnam’s VN-Index surged 38 percent, while the Philippine Stock Exchange Index rose 23 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 25 percent. Indonesia’s advance outpaced Singapore’s Straits Times Index and China’s Shanghai Composite, both up 19 percent, and beat the S&P 500’s 16 percent gain. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 5 percent, while Thailand’s SET fell 10 percent.

The JCI touched a record 8,749.26 on Tuesday. Market analyst William Hartanto of WH-Project said this year’s gains have been driven by an aggressive rotation that delivered a new set of blue chips, rather than fundamentals. Several conglomerate-linked stocks, such as Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) now command valuations larger than long-dominant bank names, he said, citing how the rise of new heavyweights has weakened the old leaders. “This is pure rotation chosen by market participants,” he said.

Mandiri Sekuritas President Director Oki Ramadhana said the march toward 9,000 is increasingly inevitable. “It’s just a matter of time,” he said, noting the index has set new highs nearly 20 times this year.

Local Liquidity Offsets Global Volatility

Retail investors continue to fuel the rally. As of October, the bourse recorded 19.15 million Single Investor IDs, including 4.28 million new accounts this year, up 58 percent from 2024. Equity investors total 8.08 million after 1.7 million newcomers joined in 2025. IDX President Director Iman Rachman said literacy programs such as the Stock Market School and the CMSE expo continue to draw Gen-Z investors into the market.

Robust domestic liquidity helped the JCI absorb global volatility, from shifting expectations on US rate cuts to swings in commodities. Gold’s rally above $4,000 per ounce and an Israeli strike on Iran in June triggered a brief 3.5 to 5 percent correction, but local demand quickly stabilized the market. Foreign flows have been uneven, particularly after a Goldman Sachs downgrade in March, but outflows were absorbed by domestic buyers. The US Federal Reserve’s third straight quarter-point cut in December, bringing its benchmark to around 3.6 percent, further lifted emerging-market sentiment.

William said foreign-driven sentiment is increasingly less decisive. “Ratings shocks no longer carry the same weight because domestic investors now dominate,” he said.

Indonesia’s macro backdrop remains supportive. The economy is projected to grow 4.7 to 5.5 percent this year, backed by resilient consumption and improving earnings. Mandiri Sekuritas expects 12 percent EPS growth in 2026, while easing bond yields continue to support valuations. Oki said low valuations, rising earnings, and falling yields have created “exceptional momentum,” drawing investors beyond blue chips into solid mid-cap names. Consumer confidence in November climbed to its highest level since February.

Political shifts also played a role. After nationwide unrest in late August over state-sanctioned perks for lawmakers, President Prabowo Subianto bowed to public pressure and appointed Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as finance minister, replacing Sri Mulyani.

The move was welcomed by the market, especially after Purbaya channeled Rp 200 trillion ($12 billion) in liquidity to state-owned banks. Investors see the shift as a sign that the government is prioritizing growth at a time when the JCI is emerging from years of stagnation. William said the index had been stuck below 8,000 since the pandemic while global markets rallied, leaving Indonesia overdue for a breakout.

IPO Pipeline Stays Resilient; 9,000 Mark in Sight 

IPO activity has remained stable. The exchange recorded about 25 listings this year, raising an estimated Rp 15.57 trillion. Merdeka Gold Resources and Chandra Daya Investasi were among the largest debuts, raising a combined Rp 7.02 trillion. Deal flow is slowing into December. Abadi Lestari Indonesia made a strong debut this week, while Superbank, backed by Singapore’s Grab and Singtel, is in bookbuilding and targeting up to Rp 3.06 trillion. William said recent IPOs have benefited from entering the market during a period dominated by conglomerate-linked stocks, a trend he expects to continue in 2026.

With the JCI hovering near record highs, Mandiri Sekuritas expects the benchmark to reach 9,050 under its base case and 9,350 in a bullish scenario. Deputy research head Kresna Partogi Hutabarat said improving sentiment and attractive valuations should continue to support consumer, banking, telecom, retail, and metal stocks, particularly gold and copper producers.

JPMorgan is more bullish. In its 2026 outlook, the firm said the index could break 10,000 next year, supported by smoother political dynamics and stronger fiscal spending. Executive Director Henry Wibowo said government expenditure is set to rise through the state budget and through Danantara, Indonesia’s newly created sovereign wealth fund and super-holding entity. The $1 trillion institution was established in February to restructure state-owned companies, attract investment, and accelerate national projects. JPMorgan expects Danantara to become a major catalyst for fresh equity inflows in 2026.

How Major Global Indexes Performed in 2025

• Vietnam VN-Index: +38%

• Philippines Stock Exchange: +23%

• Japan Nikkei 225: +25%

• Jakarta Composite Index: +21.5%

• Singapore STI: +19%

• Shanghai SSEC: +19%

• S&P 500: +16%

• Stoxx Europe 600: +13%

• S&P/ASX 200 Australia: +5%

• Malaysia KLCI: -1.6%

• Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET): -10%

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