Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rebounded sharply in early Tuesday trade, reclaiming the 7,000 level after a recent sell-off, as investors moved in on beaten-down stocks despite lingering global uncertainties.

The benchmark index rose 52 points, or 0.75%, to 7,074, moving within a range of 7,070 to 7,111.

Market activity was relatively active in the opening minutes. Data from RTI showed 664.76 million shares traded, with a total transaction value of Rp 347.69 billion ($20.48 million) across 41,659 trades. Gainers outpaced decliners, with 350 stocks advancing, 99 falling, and 160 unchanged.

“The JCI’s sharp correction below the psychological level of 7,000 was not only driven by global sentiment, but by a combination of overlapping risk factors, ranging from geopolitics, energy, global monetary policy, to domestic issues,” Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia research said.

The brokerage highlighted escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which has fueled volatility in global oil prices and raised concerns over supply disruptions. Oil prices could climb to $120–150 per barrel, with an extreme scenario reaching $200, potentially driving global inflation higher and delaying rate cuts.

Global markets are also on edge ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, which coincides with Indonesia’s Eid holiday period. The consensus expects the Fed Funds Rate to remain at 3.5–3.75%.

“The main focus for investors is not the rate decision itself, but Jerome Powell’s commentary on inflation direction and future rate projections. Current surveys suggest the probability of a 25 bps rate cut is only in December,” Kiwoom noted.

A more hawkish tone from the Fed could push US Treasury yields higher, strengthen the dollar, and increase pressure on the rupiah, which is already nearing the psychological Rp 17,000 per US dollar level at Rp 16,978.

Under such conditions, capital outflows from emerging markets may persist as investors shift toward US assets or more stable markets. Year-to-date, foreign investors have recorded a net sell of Rp 22.3 trillion in Indonesia’s regular market.

“Ahead of the long holiday, investors also tend to adopt a more cautious stance,” Phintraco Sekuritas wrote in its research note.

Adding to geopolitical uncertainty, US President Donald Trump said his planned visit to China later this month may be postponed as Washington pressures Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

On the domestic front, President Prabowo Subianto reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal discipline, emphasizing that Indonesia must live within its means. He reiterated that widening the state budget deficit beyond the 3% of GDP cap would only be considered under extraordinary emergency conditions.

Investors are also awaiting Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting, with expectations that the central bank will hold the benchmark rate at 4.75%.

Phintraco Sekuritas expects bank credit growth to accelerate to 10.1% in February 2026, up from 9.96% in January. However, ahead of the extended holiday and persistent uncertainties, investors are likely to remain cautious.

“The JCI is expected to move within the range of 6,900–7,150 today,” Phintraco added.

On Wall Street, a drop in oil prices lifted equities to their strongest session since the Iran conflict began. The S&P 500 climbed 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 387 points or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2%.

Benchmark US crude fell 5.3% to settle at $93.50 per barrel, after earlier topping $102. Brent crude declined 2.8% to $100.21, after reaching as high as $106.50. The pullback offered temporary relief after prices surged from around $70 amid escalating tensions, which disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

In Asia, markets traded higher as of 9:22 a.m. Jakarta time. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.42% to 53,975, while South Korea’s Kospi surged 2.70% to 5,699. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.59% to 26,244, and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.51% to 4,105.