Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) briefly climbed above 7,000 at Tuesday’s opening but slipped back into negative territory within minutes, as caution over the prolonged US–Iran conflict and rising oil-related fiscal pressures weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark index rose 12 points, or 0.17%, to 7,001, recovering from the previous session’s losses before turning negative after just five minutes of trading. The JCI fluctuated within a range of 6,978 to 7,015.

Trading activity remained active, with volume reaching 2.1 billion shares and turnover at Rp 1 trillion ($58 million), across more than 156,000 transactions. Gainers outnumbered decliners, with 302 stocks rising, 198 falling, and 186 unchanged.

Global sentiment continues to be shaped by the prolonged US–Iran conflict, now entering its sixth week, as diplomatic efforts have yet to produce a breakthrough. In the latest development, Iran rejected a proposed ceasefire, instead demanding a permanent end to the war, including regional security guarantees, compensation, and new arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.

On the domestic front, despite the sharp increase in global crude oil prices, the government has reaffirmed that subsidized fuel prices will remain unchanged through the end of the year.

“This is based on calculations showing that the state budget remains resilient enough to absorb subsidies, assuming an average crude oil price of up to $100 per barrel until year-end,” Phintraco Sekuritas said.

However, the policy comes with fiscal trade-offs. Phintraco noted that every $1 increase in global oil prices could raise subsidy requirements by Rp 6.8 trillion.

To maintain the state budget deficit at 2.92% without depleting excess budget funds (SAL), the Finance Ministry is planning expenditure cuts across less efficient ministries and agencies. The government currently holds Rp 420 trillion in SAL, including Rp 200 trillion placed in the banking system as a fiscal buffer.

“With these conditions, the JCI is expected to move sideways within the 6,900–7,100 range today,” Phintraco added.

Meanwhile, aviation fuel (avtur) prices in Indonesia surged as much as 72.45% month-on-month in April 2026, with increases recorded across major airports, including CGK, SUB, DPS, KNO, and UPG.

Separately, FTSE Russell maintained Indonesia’s status as a Secondary Emerging Market in its February 2026 review, alleviating earlier concerns of a potential downgrade.

“FTSE Russell’s country review of Indonesia is evaluative in terms of classification, so its impact is more on sentiment rather than changes to index composition,” Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said in its Tuesday research note.

“Nevertheless, it is highly likely that the FTSE Russell assessment will consider reforms that have already been implemented, such as the disclosure of ownership data above 1%, publication of the high shareholding concentration list, and the increase in minimum free float to 15% through the revision of Exchange Regulation I-A effective March 31, 2026, including a transition period to maintain market stability,” the brokerage added.

Overnight, US stocks closed higher in cautious trading ahead of a deadline set by President Donald Trump regarding potential military action against Iran.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, marking its first weekly gain in six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 165 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5%.

Oil prices also climbed amid uncertainty over the conflict’s potential impact on global energy supply. Iran reiterated its stance against a temporary ceasefire.

“We won’t merely accept a ceasefire,” Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, head of Iran’s diplomatic mission in Cairo, told The Associated Press. “We only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again.”

Trump indicated that Tuesday’s 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline could be final.

“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said.

Across Asia, markets opened higher -- as of 8:35 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.46% to 53,657, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.25% to 5,518, and China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.18% to 3,887. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng remained closed for a public holiday.

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