Jakarta. Indonesia’s trade surplus with the United States will likely shrink under a new trade deal that cuts tariffs on Indonesian goods while eliminating duties on American exports, according to economist Eko Listiyanto.

“This agreement will certainly reduce Indonesia’s trade surplus with the US since American exports will face zero tariffs,” said Eko, an economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), on Wednesday.

The deal, announced by US President Donald Trump, will see the US reduce import tariffs on Indonesian goods to 19 percent from a previously proposed 32 percent, while Indonesia will grant tariff-free access for American products.

“It’s not ideal, but the 19 percent tariff is the best outcome we could get given our limited bargaining position,” Eko said, adding that Indonesia’s surplus with the US is expected to narrow under the agreement.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform that Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 billion worth of American energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural goods, and 50 Boeing aircraft, including Boeing 777 wide-body jets, although he did not specify the timeline for these purchases.

The U.S. remains Indonesia’s largest source of trade surplus. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the country recorded a $5.44 billion trade surplus with the US from January to April 2025, up from $4.37 billion in the same period last year. India and the Philippines followed as the next largest contributors to Indonesia’s trade surplus, with surpluses of $3.98 billion and $2.92 billion, respectively.

Meanwhile, the US Census Bureau reported that the United States recorded a trade deficit of $9.7 billion with Indonesia in the first five months of 2025.

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