Jakarta. Indonesia’s biggest blue-chip stocks are facing potential weight cuts, downgrades, and even exclusion from MSCI global indexes in the upcoming quarterly review, raising concerns over capital outflows estimated at $1.7 billion, or around Rp 29.5 trillion, according to Mirae Asset Sekuritas.

MSCI is scheduled to announce the results of its quarterly global index review, including the MSCI Indonesia Index, on May 12, while the rebalancing will take effect on May 29. The review covers several benchmarks, including the MSCI Global Standard Indexes, MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes, MSCI Micro Cap Indexes, and MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Indexes.

The market is closely watching the review as it typically triggers portfolio adjustments among global institutional investors. Market chatter suggests several Indonesian heavyweight stocks may see their weightings reduced in the May review.

The stocks reportedly at risk include major banks Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (BMRI), and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), alongside Telkom Indonesia (TLKM), Astra International (ASII), Barito Pacific (BRPT), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS), GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO), and United Tractors (UNTR).

The adjustment could reduce Indonesia’s weight in MSCI indexes by 16 basis points from 0.72% to 0.56%, potentially triggering Rp 29.5 trillion in capital outflows. The prospect adds to pressure on the domestic market, which has already recorded foreign net sell of Rp 37.03 trillion across all markets and Rp 47.82 trillion in the regular market since the start of the year, contributing to the Jakarta Composite Index’s 19.40% year-to-date decline.

Beyond weight reductions, MSCI is also expected to downgrade several Indonesian stocks, including Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA), Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN), Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN), and Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT), from the Global Standard Indexes to the Small Cap Indexes.

Meanwhile, Mirae Asset Sekuritas analyst Wilbert Arifin said two stocks, Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), are at risk of being removed entirely from MSCI’s global indexes due to high shareholding concentration (HSC).

According to Indonesia Stock Exchange data as of March 31, 2026, certain shareholders collectively controlled 97.31% of BREN’s total shares. A similar ownership structure was seen in DSSA, where several shareholders held 95.76% of outstanding shares.

Regarding possible adjustments to the foreign inclusion factor (FIF), or the proportion of shares accessible to foreign investors, Wilbert said MSCI is likely to address the matter during its June accessibility review.

“We believe the broader risk of Indonesia being reclassified into a frontier market has largely passed. The remaining concerns are mainly related to potential removals due to HSC and FIF adjustments, which may still weigh on the affected stocks and slightly reduce Indonesia’s index weighting,” Wilbert wrote in a research note on Sunday.

He added that MSCI remains consistent in maintaining the three temporary measures applied during the February review. These include freezing all increases in FIF and number of shares (NOS), refraining from adding new stocks to the MSCI Investable Market Indexes, and blocking Indonesian stocks from being upgraded from the Global Small Cap Indexes to the Standard Indexes.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas senior market chartist Nafan Aji Gusta said investors are currently monitoring the MSCI review closely as it often drives volatility in large-cap and blue-chip stocks due to foreign fund rebalancing.

“Technically, the JCI is showing a bullish divergence based on the RSI indicator, although a long black closing marubozu candle was formed in Friday’s trading. Stochastics K_D is still showing a negative signal, but RSI has entered oversold territory while trading volume strengthened,” Nafan said.

Separately, Financial Services Authority (OJK) Capital Market Supervisor chief executive Hasan Fawzi previously urged investors not to react excessively to potential index weight reductions.

According to Hasan, structural market reforms may temporarily trigger portfolio adjustments, short-term selling pressure, capital outflows during the initial rebalancing period, higher volatility, and wider bid-ask spreads, particularly in low-liquidity stocks.

“These dynamics are transitional and part of the process toward building a healthier and higher-quality capital market in the medium to long term,” Hasan said.

He added that the OJK has prepared comprehensive mitigation measures in anticipation of any future reduction in Indonesia’s MSCI weighting.

“This policy is part of the capital market integrity reform that has been strengthened since early 2026,” Hasan said.