Jakarta. Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Indonesia’s recession risk remains below 5%, as the economy continues to hold steady on the back of solid fundamentals.

Airlangga said key indicators remain intact, helping maintain overall stability.

“Our fundamentals remain intact. Economic growth was recorded at 5.11% last year, and in 2026 the target is 5.4%,” Airlangga said on Monday.

He added that first-quarter 2026 growth is projected to reach at least 5.5%. Inflation remains manageable at 3.48%, while consumer confidence stays elevated at 122.9.

Domestic consumption continues to anchor the economy, contributing around 54% to gross domestic product.

“Domestic consumption remains strong, accounting for 54% of GDP,” he said.

From the external side, Indonesia’s trade performance remains solid, with the country posting a surplus for 70 consecutive months, totaling $148.2 billion.

Meanwhile, external debt remains relatively controlled at 29.9% of GDP. The financing structure is also considered resilient, with government bonds largely held by domestic investors at 87.4%, compared with 12.6% by foreign investors.

Airlangga said global institutions continue to view Indonesia positively. The International Monetary Fund has described Indonesia as one of Asia’s “bright spots,” while the Asian Development Bank projects the country’s economy to grow around 5.2% in 2026.

He also noted that Indonesia is relatively less exposed to global energy shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, due to its lower dependence on the region.

“Several institutions estimate Indonesia’s recession probability at below 5%, lower than countries such as the United States, Japan, or Canada. The world still sees Indonesia as a relatively strong economy,” Airlangga said.

He added that the government will continue strengthening coordination across institutions to maintain growth momentum amid ongoing global challenges.