Jakarta. Indonesia’s government expects consumer spending during the Christmas and New Year holiday period to reach as much as Rp 120 trillion rupiah ($7.2 billion), betting on a seasonal surge in consumption to support economic growth in the final quarter of 2025.

Household consumption accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s gross domestic product, making seasonal spending a crucial buffer against external challenges, such as weaker global demand and tighter financial conditions. 

Chief Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said projected spending during December is expected to range between Rp 110 trillion and Rp 120 trillion, making household consumption a key driver of fourth-quarter growth.

“Total spending this December is estimated at between Rp 110 trillion and Rp 120 trillion, which we expect will help lift economic growth from the consumption side,” Airlangga told a full cabinet meeting at the State Palace on Monday.

The government is rolling out a mix of shopping incentives, travel discounts and tourism programs to stimulate domestic demand during the peak holiday season.

One of the main drivers is the National Online Shopping Day, running from Dec. 12 to Dec. 16, which the government expects to generate transactions worth up to Rp 34 trillion. Offline retail is also expected to see a sharp uptick, with shopping malls offering discounts of up to 80%, targeting transactions of around Rp 30 trillion.

Spending at modern retail outlets and small neighborhood stores throughout December is projected to reach Rp 56 trillion, Airlangga said, reflecting broad-based consumption across income segments.

Taken together, the surge in holiday spending is expected to help keep Indonesia’s economic growth above 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a level the government sees as critical to maintaining momentum amid global economic uncertainty.

To support higher mobility during the holiday period, the government has introduced a range of transportation incentives. Non-subsidized train tickets will receive a 30% discount for travel between Dec. 22, 2025, and Jan. 10, 2026. State-owned shipping operator Pelni will offer a 20% discount on passenger fares from Dec. 17 through Jan. 10.

Air travel has also been made cheaper, with ticket prices reduced by around 13% to 14%. The discounted fares apply to tickets purchased between Oct. 22, 2025, and Jan. 10, 2026, for flights scheduled from Dec. 22 to Jan. 10.

Beyond retail and transportation, the government is also pushing tourism as another pillar of holiday consumption. Authorities have scheduled 37 tourism events throughout December 2025, aimed at encouraging domestic travel and spreading economic activity across regions.

“These events are expected to stimulate the movement of people across Indonesia,” Airlangga said.