Jakarta. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is bracing for a sharp correction when markets reopen on Tuesday, as the ripple effects of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff policy continue to batter global equities.

Regional markets plunged Monday following Wall Street’s two-day selloff last week, with investors rattled by Trump’s April 2 decision to impose steep new import duties on dozens of countries, including Indonesia. Analysts say the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) could fall as much as 3 percent when trading resumes after the weeklong Eid holiday break.

“We expect the JCI to decline by 2 percent to 3 percent on Tuesday,” said Ibrahim Assuaibi, a currency and equity market analyst at Laba Forexindo Berjangka. “The market is likely to react negatively to the US tariff hike, which has triggered a broader flight from risk assets.”

Indonesian markets have been closed since March 28. In that time, Asian equities were hammered amid fears of a global trade war. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 7.2 percent by midday Monday, triggering a circuit breaker on the Topix index. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 10.7 percent, the Shanghai Composite declined 6.3 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 5.2 percent. Australia’s ASX 200 recovered to 4 percent lower after falling more than 6 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex plummeted 9.7 percent.

“Beyond the market meltdown, the bigger concern is the impact and potential crises for small and trade-dependent economies,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. “It’s crucial to see whether Trump will reach deals with most countries soon.”

The tariff fallout is being closely watched across Asia, where many economies rely heavily on exports to the US Trump’s measures are set to take effect Wednesday, and with no clear path to resolution, economists warn of prolonged economic uncertainty.

“Market uncertainty and volatility are likely to persist for some time,” said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management. He added that a wave of retaliatory tariffs is likely, and working through the negotiations could take considerable time.

Under Trump’s “reciprocal trade” policy, Indonesia was hit with a 32 percent tariff—among the highest in Southeast Asia. The Philippines faces 17 percent, while Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are subject to duties of up to 49 percent. Only Singapore was spared, retaining the baseline 10 percent rate.

“The impact of the trade war is significant, especially now that Indonesia is directly targeted,” Ibrahim said. “This will dampen export prospects and hurt market sentiment.”

He urged the Indonesian government to consider reciprocal tariffs and deepen trade ties within the BRICS bloc. He also called for policy support from Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah, which briefly breached Rp 17,000 per dollar Monday before recovering to Rp 16,835.

“These developments are weighing on risk assets across the board,” Ibrahim said. “If Trump signals a softening in his trade stance, we could see a modest rebound. But for now, the outlook is decidedly bearish.”

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