Jakarta. Astra International's (ASII) shares plummeted to their lowest level in the past year due to declining car sales. In early trading on Tuesday, ASII's shares were traded at Rp 4,660, marking an 8.18 percent decline from Monday's closing.

According to Stockbit Sekuritas' analysis, this decline was attributed to wholesale car sales in Indonesia in April, which were recorded at 48,637 units, down by 34.8 percent month-on-month and 17.4 percent year-on-year.

Astra, the biggest automotive company in Indonesia, recorded wholesale car sales of 26,531 units in April 2024, down by 34.2 percent month-on-month and 23.4 percent year-on-year.

"This relatively sharp decline is mainly driven by the largest brand, Toyota, which suffered a 29.3 percent month-on-month decline, and a 30.3 percent year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, non-Astra car brands in April reached 22,106 units, a 35.5 percent month-on-month correction, and an 8.9 percent year-on-year decline. The correction in non-Astra car sales is mainly triggered by a decline in Mitsubishi of 47.6 percent month-on-month and 52.7 percent year-on-year," revealed Stockbit Sekuritas.

In terms of market share in April, Astra experienced a decline to 54.5 percent from 58.8 percent in the same period last year, with Toyota's market share sharply decreasing to 31.2 percent from 37 percent. Meanwhile, Astra Daihatsu's market share increased to 19.5 percent from 18.3 percent.

On the other hand, in non-Astra cars, Honda and Suzuki saw an increase in market share, each increasing to 9.5 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively, compared to 8.4 percent and 7.9 percent.

Cumulatively during the first four months of 2024, wholesale car sales in Indonesia only reached 263,706 units, marking a decrease of 22.6 percent year-on-year.

Stockbit Sekuritas assessed that despite domestic consumption being boosted by the Eid effect, car sales were weaker compared to the sales during the Eid period since 2021.

"In our opinion, the 2024 target from the Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), which is at 1.1 million units, is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve with the weak realization until the first four months, which only reached 24 percent of the 2024 target," concluded Stockbit.

Meanwhile, for stock prices, the negative sentiment from the weak automotive sales will continue to overshadow the movement of stock prices for automotive issuers such as IMAS, AUTO, and DRMA, all of which have weakened since the beginning of the year.

"We believe that signs of bottoming out in car sales figures—from -20 percent to approaching -10 percent year-on-year—are needed to see a recovery in stock prices," explained Stockbit.

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