Jakarta. Global oil prices edged close to $80 per barrel on Monday, and an analyst warns that they could surge beyond $100 if tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate.

The warning comes amid concerns that the conflict may worsen after the United States bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Tehran to threaten a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.

“This conflict will certainly disrupt oil supply, and I believe prices could easily surpass $100 per barrel. In a worst-case scenario, we could see prices climb to between $120 and $140,” said Dendi Ramdani, Head of Industry & Regional Research at Bank Mandiri.

Dendi noted that while the baseline for global oil prices has hovered around $70 per barrel, current geopolitical risks could double that figure. He highlighted Iran’s unexpectedly strong military response as a key driver of concern.

“The situation is different this time. Iran has demonstrated advanced missile capabilities that have successfully penetrated Israel’s defense systems -- something many did not expect,” he added.

The Iranian parliament has already approved a motion to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the US airstrikes -- an act that could severely disrupt global energy markets.

Beyond the Middle East, Dendi pointed to broader economic tensions -- such as the ongoing global tariff wars -- as additional factors contributing to upward pressure on oil prices.

He added that if geopolitical instability persists and global trade tensions remain unresolved, the world could be heading toward a period of extreme price volatility in the energy market.

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